The fact that the vast majority of deaths occur with the elderly, who also have preexisting conditions, indicates those preexisting conditions are highly relevant to the deaths. Put another way, take a young person with healthy immune system and no preexisting health issues, and the chance of them dying from Covid-19 is negligible.

Think of Covid-19 more as a catalyst that complicates other issues, rather than a stand-alone cause of death.

The fact that the vast majority of deaths occur with the elderly, who also have preexisting conditions, indicates those preexisting conditions are highly relevant to the deaths. Put another way, take a young person with healthy immune system and no preexisting health issues, and the chance of them dying from Civid-19 is negligible.

Think of Covid-19 more as a catalyst that complicates other issues, rather than a stand-alone cause of death.

Agree, however some things maybe considered:

1) To ‘accept’ a disease because it affects elderly people more than others is up to us (possibly) younger people. Me won’t.
2) Case fertility rates CFR for each country can be found here: https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
3) Few years ago I had the flu of my life: Two weeks in bed, fire in my lungs and lots (LOTS) of pain. Even considered calling an ambulance, almost no breathing possible (~20%) etc. And guess what: Test for antigens made recently was ‘negative’. For sure, I do not want to suffer Covid after having had such a pretty tough experience (and I can take some pain).

But you are right, out of those 130m approximately 95% will be elderly people or some with preexisting health issues.

My theory is that we all suffer from it at least 3-4 times over the next two decades, finally ending up as an elderly person, then.

Recently, I worry more about the side effects of Covid (looting etc.): People need jobs, food, safety, health, social contacts. Plenty of this could be ‘gone’ over the next years: It is said, that every 6th US citizen could suffer hunger over the next few months. Also, that approx. 23m might loose their homes. True or not, I don’t know. Nuff said.

QT

You have to be serious..

Over the last month, approximately 20m people got infected with SarsCov2. Can this data derive from increased testing of antibodies? Will any vaccine be used, after all, on a broader basis?

Meanwhile, the hospitals are getting overcrowded: Approximately 82% intensive care units already occupied (at least where I live). From Eastern Germany they even transport patients to Berlin hospitals due to lack of capacities. "Ick bin ein Berliner" the new way.

Looking back over a – recently common – 19-day hospitalization period, approx 2.74% of all new infections have already: Died. This value is improving, though, it still represents every 36th person will head towards eternity..why ‘will’? Because the ~20m increase over ~50m from the previous month is (in detail) a 34% monthly growth rate (factor 33 over 12 months). Thus, ~2.4B people will get infected over the next 12 months – if the disease doesn’t ‘grow’ or ‘slow’.

At the current mortality rate (out of the infected cases only!) this will lead to ~65m people dying over the next 12 months. If you know 800 people, about 20 of those will most likely, well, you know.

It could be you. Or me. Or even both of us. So, from now on, we all have to be serious.

QT

Some good Christmas news:

Monthly growth rate (over November 25th) has reduced to slightly under 30% per month (previous was ~34% p.m.). Therefore, at least the growth of the disease has reduced more than 10% since December 11th. Now this growth rate presumably will lead to approximately 1,845,532,104 or 1.8B people getting infected over the next twelve months (compared to 2.4B previously). Certainly no effect of vaccination, yet. Rather different behaviour, more people wearing masks, colder weather in Northern Hemisphere, etc.?

But yes, today we’ve reached a total of 80,000,000 infections. But 600m infections less over the next 12 months is sort of a Christmas Wonder, too. To be continued? Stay safe.

QT

UPDATE:

Despite all measures, Covid might soon catch about a million people a day. 8.5% of my overall prediction, that about 1.8B could get infected until the end of 2021, has already become ‘true’ (25% of the year has passed). A total of 600,000 related deaths in the US, many of those could have been prevented (see my post regarding the first eight (!) cases in the US). The disease continues to spread.

‘Good’ news – if there is any – is that treatment and vaccine is improving the situation. But the virus is developing, too, most likely faster than our labs: Indian version, UK version, Brazilian version, South African version etc – will vaccination help ? My guess is: With little to no effect. It might help in treatment, though. While India and Brazil struggle with thousands of deaths a day (most people not getting a vaccine), the secondary effects take over the situation. Those effects might cause more trouble than the virus itself.

QT