CDC is verifying: Ebola cannot be transmitted via ‘casual contact’ or ‘water’. However, they say that it can be transmitted via sweat (handshake?) and spit (speaking?). So it’s safe, but on the other hand it’s not. This is why they do wear these…
…when it’s about their own safety. Well, that’s ok (I thought about buying one..btw, the nurse in Texas who got infected had one, too…the size of an ebola virus is approximately 14 µm).
Reproduction rate:
CDC still offers the number of infections from October 8. I now follow for almost a month the counting: 8,400 cases, which is equal to a reproduction rate of 1.86 by the end of a one-month period (30 days).
Let’s consider the patients going to hospital or cemetery latestly after 21 days, with two days incubation time on the beginning of the infection. We then got approximately 19 days of pure Ebola host running around at Burger Restaurant & Co – having time to reproduce at a individual reproduction rate of 1.48. This rate, however, is not ‘real’ as the disease actually grows with a monthly (overall) reproduction rate of 1.86. Therefore: 1.86 divided by 19 x 30 days = 2.94 or 3 people getting infected in average over a period of one month by each infected Ebola patient.
This, however, will never happen due to diarrhoe, nausea, internal bleeding, unexpected bruises (don’t panic 
), excessive vomitting and headache etc…so after 21 every patient will sooner or later end up in hospital, some in the upper and some in the lower ‘departments’.
The basic reproduction number is given here, but seems a bit lower and somehow vague (1-2 persons): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
In fact, this growth rate prooves to be accureate (1.86) and may it be assumed that the current string of Ebola has a rather above-average basic reproduction number which equals the below-average reproduction number of Influenza (2-3). Saying that Ebola is growing almost as fast as Influenza (possibly due to anti-infection activities?), which imo is the horror scenario #1.
BTW, reproduction rate is not lower because of people going into hospital (or dying). This fact simply represents a 21-day delay of the total outbreak situation. The infection does happen before or during a hospital treatment and it currently does grow with a rate of 1.86 – no matter how many hosts are already deceased, under treatment or cured. We do consider the new infections in a healthy environment.
Comparison to HIV, which has a higher base reproduction rate of 2-5. Also a deadly disease, however the reproduction rate is considered based on the time of possible infection: Ebola has 19 days, HIV has – years. So over years, the HIV reproduction rate is 2-5 while Ebola only needs 19 days to produce two new infections..so although HIV is a deadly disease, the outbreak situation is incomparably slower than Ebola’s.
8,400 cases x 1.86^22.13 months = 8,000,000,000
approximate global infection time assuming a healthy environment (<24 months).
Most cases did not yet appear in the US or Europe so far. So there might be the possibility that ‘they’ get the disease under control at least in these areas by tracking each infected case – I definitely doubt it. What if an infected person doesn’t show any symptoms yet (freshly ‘fleeing’ from Liberia, e.g.)? Two days later a 19-day host is on his way..
P.S.:
1.86^12=1,744 representing the annual growth rate based on 12 months or 360 days (365 days: 1,935). So from now on, by the end of one year, the 8,400 cases could result in 16.254 million infections (assuming a healthy environment and no change in reproduction rate).
This definitely exceeds the global population growth rate of approximately 1.1% annually (2012). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o … concerning
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-20341423
Based on the information considered above, a today’s update of the CDC would result in approximately 9,318 cases. Stay cool.
QT
*ZODIACHRONOLOGY*
The university of Kansas med center in KC, just stated they think they have a ebola patient – has symtoms and recently from W Africa
They need to flat out stop flights from those countries into the U.S. until they get a handle on this. Also, they better start making some Antibiotics just in case. It’s very scary!
http://www.wtsp.com/story/news/health/2 … /17215691/
yep
A second hospital worker in Dallas has tested positive for the Ebola virus. They did not say she was a nurse, only that she rendered some type of care to Duncan. Scary development!
5,000 to 10,000 cases expected weekly in December.
Update:
My estimation for December, based on CDC data, is 21,297 new infections (4,809 weekly infections), therefore lower than WHO estimation. This still complies with the previous data considered above. And Ebola is mutating..this is normal for a virus, approximately 300 different mutations are already known. Meanwhile, the Science magazine is dealing with the outbreak scenario, too ( http://news.sciencemag.org/health/2014/ … aper?rss=1).
Also, you can find a detailled outbreak map including tools on the medical university in Hamburg, Germany ( http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/projects/ebola/ ). Somehow I doubt the data of ‘Relative Import Risk Ranked by Country’, if the infections is unknown and symptoms might not yet have shown up in the patient. It may be assumed that if 100 infected persons board a plane, all the 100 will arrive in that country (if not thrown out of the airplane..). So they might infect others who travel different routes, but ‘anyway’. Guess they think they can handle the airport all in protection suits..indeed, infectious patients are meanwhile asked to stay inside the toilet during the whole flight..
Chances for Ebola to get to London Heathrow is approximately 3.0% – if not already there. This probability, however, would grow with the base reproduction factor of 1.9 – every month.
Relative Import Risk for US, for additional cases, >85%.
QT
*ZODIACHRONOLOGY*
Dear Quicktrader. I must apologize for not putting more merit into the subject you have put up here. A real and present danger is unfolding before us. It seems the doomsday preppers will have wry smiles as this grows and grows.. The WHO s predictions are scary.
Keep up the good work
Cheers
reportedly China and India send large numbers of people there west africa for business.
China, India, Indonesia high density and Europe’s free cross border will be the biggest challenges to mitigate the spread .. Planes trains and automobiles, make this blue planet tiny. Very tiny
Dr oz 1/2 of the show today was about ebola.
at the present rates and present response , 60 days from now there will be no plan to deal with it according to WHO.
and that the extreme treatment that saved some here in the states is impossible to produce for the masses and his words were at some point there has to be no further plans for treating patients . all the African surrounding countries have close their borders to stop the spread ,but the US refuses to do this .
Today, new data has been published by the CDC..9,216 cases as of October 14, 2014.
The reproduction rate is now at 1.0200 per day or 1.8265 per month. This is slightly lower than the previously known reproduction rate.
Obviously there was some success in the efforts to contain the outbreak. In fact, it doesn’t change too much…the overall infection of our population (assuming a healthy environment) would now happen in 23.1 months instead of 22.5..
The previous reproduction rate was 1,0205, it therefore might be assumed that a reduction of the reproduction rate to the extent of 0.05% actually delays the outbreak for about half a month. The good part of it is that the world was able to reduce the reproduction rate at all. As long as this does happen, the target of a reproduction rate <1 is still in sight (letting the disease ‘die’). Every month of delay of the outbreak is a good one.
Naturally there are now three scenarios:
a.) Reproduction rate will be lowered again, deducted from a capability to contain the disease (‘fast outbreak can be covered by faster activities’, e.g. by tracking of infected persons)
b.) Reproduction rate will be stable, then sooner or later the question of a healthy environment will come up (areas with increasing percentage of infected people). The disease might still be under control (Z..) in (self-)isolated countries.
c.) Reproduction rate will increase again, which would let assume a higher than estimated number of cases is still existing and that would clearly be a sign that the disease still cannot be controlled.
Meanwhile I am sitting at home. With a flu, completely feeling Ebola-style.
QT
*ZODIACHRONOLOGY*
When flu season is in full swing this will be a real nightmare.Get lots of rest!
When flu season is in full swing this will be a real nightmare.Get lots of rest!
Thanks..I will 
…
Did a calculation on the Ebola development under the assumption that the base reproduction rate can be lowered as it had happened from October 12 to October 14..in that case the disease would stop by itself approximately in October 2015. Hope they can handle that, so we won’t need our survival tipps..
Update:
Base reproduction rate again lowered by 4% in 6 days only..1,0186. Seems as if they are on a good way to get it under control..
QT
*ZODIACHRONOLOGY*
Some more cases in the US? We had Texas and Kansas..now there was this lucky guy in Nebraska
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/1 … story.html
as well as another case in – New York.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/2 … 38916.html
And yes, he went through the airport Ebola control and later walked a few times through some metro stations, so he did the best a virus host actually can do..
Meanwhile some riots in Sierra Leone
http://news.yahoo.com/two-die-sierra-le … 29395.html
which is actually no news..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-2 … -riot.html
QT
*ZODIACHRONOLOGY*
I do not think you can use the rates of infection numbers of W africa here ( US and alike) though.
The diarrhea causes extreme dehydration which those countries have not the ability and $$ in the past to solve ,not a problem here ,and it is sweltering hot there no A/C.
Saliva is not a good transmitter of the virus ,it’s the diarrhea and vomit that really is the transmitter ( DR Oz show )
