Poltifact has a fair assessment IMO:

Based solely on the numbers, you’re more likely to die if you get the 2019 coronavirus than if you get the flu.

But, as of now, the flu is more common in the United States than the coronavirus. Both diseases spread similarly and affect similar at-risk groups.

Researchers are still learning more about the severity of the coronavirus. That uncertainty makes it hard to make risk comparisons to other viruses.

So: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst = A good strategy.

Italy +2.313 (~22%)

I will go and buy some rice now, for the next 12 months..

US ranked on #8, still with ‘few’ cases, so far. Doubled since March 8 (3 days only).

Since February 28, the cases outside of China had a growth rate of >500%. In less than two weeks.

@masootz:
We are all doomed.

QT

UPDATE – Didn’t get the rice….empty shelves, which usually are full. Therefore failed to follow the ‘survival tipps’..taking it as a lesson. Tomorrow will go rice hunting

me: just hoping my uber eats driver stays well

this is not to far off the mark. i have not studied the figures because they are as rubbery as the world politicians are letting on.. read on

The concern about Covid-19 is well placed. There is misinformation and misunderstanding about Covid-19. E.g. you will see people saying it is no issue as there were 34,000 (2019) or 64,000 (2018) flu deaths in USA / 217,000 got the flu in Australia & 430 died this year.

There are only 2 values about the disease: mortality rate and a value called R0 (called R naught) which is how fast it spreads.

Mortality rate flu ~ 0.05%. Covid-19 latest 3%. (60 times worse). Measles 15% (long term effects up to 25%)

The R0 is a function of the rate of spread, methods, etc. Flu= 1.3. Covid-19=~3.5, and measles ~12-18

Therefore should we be concerned? Measles is much more deadly, flu less so. However, about 90% of population is measles vaccinated (about 85% in Beerburrum or Nimbin) and flu less so. Herd immunity kicks in and stops the spread for both measles and flu.

So the current strict quarantine is very sound. If Covid-19 gets away then it will spread and kill. Might be a year or more to have a vaccine.

Just like foot and mouth that Terry Donaldson worked on back in MAF days. Stop it early and hard, or it becomes impossible to control.

A reputable source of info is on the Australia govt site listed below.
https://www1.health.gov.au/ …/novel_coronavirus_2019_ncov_we…

There is a vaccine developed and already into production but it takes time to refine, test on animals, humans etc. So a year is a reasonable guess.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StFr5-R5m1M

WHO SITUATION REPORT #51 is out since a few minutes:

Day-to-day growth rate was slightly above 12% over yesterday (outside China). BUT: Report # 51 represents the status quo at 10 am CET.

Over the last 11 hours, however, the overall count of Covid-19 infected has increased from 118,326 (report #51) to 125,652. This is a plus of 7,326 cases ‘today’ since 10am CET.

Considering approximately 40 cases from China, this increase of infections (outside China) is therefore ~7,275, based on the previous 37,371 cases outside China (118,326 minus 80,955; report #51). Which is a 19.6% increase in the first 11 hours of ‘report #52’, which is not published, yet. Still another 13 hours to go, increasing this day-to-day growth rate.

PANDEMIA status. WHO recommends to ‘Make a plan in preparation for an outbreak of COVID-19 in your community‘.

QT

Italy: 15,313 – plus 31.6% over yesterday (11,485), plus 65% over the day before yesterday (9,172).

Currently, the counter is on 133,499 cases. Out of China: 52,706 cases On February 28th, two weeks ago, there were 4,691 cases (outside China) ‘only’. Now it is eleven-fold (or 3.35 multiplicator per week). Day-to-day rate in average: 18.9%.

For all the sceptics: The growth above was NOT produced by the full amount of cases: Only from those, that hadn’t been cured (or in quarantine) yet. Approximately half of all cases has already recovered, however, thus the day-to-day growth rate, based on hosts walking around, is actually significantly higher. Thus, with increasing amount of hosts walking freely, the day-to-day growth rate most likely will even rise.

UPDATE:

Official Report #52 comes up with conservative 44,067 cases as of 10am CET (out of China). Plus 6,703 or +15.2% (day2day rate). At such rate, it takes five days to double the infections.

Day-to-day growth rates over the last few days:

14.8%
13.8%
12.5%
14.0%
15.2%

A pandemic taking place.

QT

Day-to-day growth rate today (report #53):

14.6%

WHO reported 132,758 confirmed cases. This one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

goes with 144,160, so far.

Germany 3,675
Italy 17,660
US 2,068

On March 9, we talked about 30,850 cases. If they would double / that these would not double necessarily. As of today, however, March 13, there are 64,887 cases outside China. Doubled in four days only.

QT

From yesterday’s WHO report #54 (all outside China):

9,751 new cases; 61,518 total. Day-to-day growth rate is now 15.85%. 13 new territories affected.

Here in Austria, all ‘events’ are cancelled. Restaurants, bars etc. will – like schools – be closed for minimum of two weeks. Tyrole partially under quarantine, hotels all closing there. Meanwhile, one case in Thailand ‘cured’ after giving flu + hiv medicamentation in combo.

On March 9th, we had 30,850 cases (outside China). Yesterday it reached 61,518. More than double, actually a R0 of 2.14 over a period of 5-6 days – the approximate incubation time (thanks Mr. Iowe). To get COVID under control, this rate should go (significantly) below 1. Only that leading to a decrease of new infections..never ever, if you ask me. Day-to-day rate <0…this disease will accompany us over the next months, if not years, imo.

Wuhan had a similar R0 value (~2) before everything got out of control…somebody really has messed up somehow in that level 4 bio lab..

QT

Here in South Africa we now have 61 cases. It started with 1 confirmed last week, we are now up to 61. Our president just addressed our nation. We have a travel ban and all schools closed till after Easter holidays. And no social gatherings allowed either.

jGold: Wise..

WHO report #55:

72 469 confirmed (10 955 new)

+17.8%

equals to multiplier 2,547,106 over a 90 day period (if not changing). Based on 72,469 infected people outside China: Potential for 184.6B people in three months – statistically.

QT

Yes it is a wise decision. It gets a bit more difficult for us here in SA though. We are dealing with a lot at the moment. Just on a daily basis we have rolling blackouts as it is, we term it load shedding. We have just finished stage 4 load shedding which basically means 3 times a day for 2 hours we have no electricity at all, so like us here in my area that 6 to 8 am then at 4 to 6pm ad again at 8 to 10pm. Then on top of that we have water shedding too, lucky we haven’t had in my area for a few weeks but some areas are without running water for days. So a simple task in some of our communities such as washing hands is not possible all the time, and our poorest people would never be able to afford the hand sanitiser. Our state hospitals are falling apart and most cant afford medical cover privately.
As bad as it sounds, we are a loving and caring bunch so between us all we make it work and we help where and when we can, it is what it is unfortunately we just get on with it.
I don’t think its all doom and gloom though, I think we will recover soon everyone seems to be taking it extremely seriously and doing whatever they can to contain it. I think we need to protect our elderly, immune compromised and children as best we can. So if that means staying at home, keeping clean and no socializing for a month , its a small price to pay. Hopefully the strategy works.

13874 ÷ ( 86434 – 13874 ) =‬

19.12%

Doubling in less than 4 days.

Report #56

QT

(deleted)

Unfortunately I think I have the virus. Cough and flu like symptoms since today.

Use the mask. Wish you the very best.

QT