Since a few minutes, Italy data is out (over yesterday):

CASES: 35,713 (+4,207 cases / +13.4%)
DEATHS: 2,978 (+475 deaths / +19.0%)

Lockdown of social life works but still infections multiply with 82,257 over 90-day period (prognosis). Similar here in Austria – 20% more cases, lockdown continuing. For US people thinking these two countries wouldn’t affect them: Border to Canada is closed, US meanwhile 7,666 cases. Pretty high death rate, btw.

Obviously, lockdown is not enough. Virus can survive over a 9-day period on e.g. plastic surfaces; up to 3 hours stay in the air. Thus, using an elevator can get an ‘interesting experience’, sort of.

Enough food for a minimum of 3 months (at home). Buy your stuff as long as you can, is one advice. The more people will get infected, the ‘dirtier’ will food, packaging become. Currently, using a mask as well as gloves is strongly recommendable – but how about not to touch the outside of your own gloves? Without washing them each time? Door handles, buttons, everything could be contaminated. Even the soles of your shoes. No panic but riscs of reality.

QT

WHO starts to admit:

Reporting false data over the last few weeks. Now comes up with 22.9k new cases per day. They also changed reporting time period from 10am to 0am.
Global growth rate? Way too high. 98% underestimating the risk. Even doctors etc. – 9% of medical staff infected (Italy). Get food. Get off contacts.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc … ee1b9125cd

US now on pos 7 (before: 8). Just saying. Germany, France, UK, US – next.

9,000 deaths. This morning it was 7,900.

QT

US now on position #7.

The disease is going through the roof. Dozens of countries, currently with only hundreds of cases, most of them not prepared / going into the thousands, soon. Death toll soon in its 5-digits, which most likely is just the start.

This virus is not sleeping, yet.

UPDATE: USA now on position #6.

QT

Use the mask. Wish you the very best.

QT

I am self-isolating. At least it gives me time to binge-watch Mindhunter.

Use the mask. Wish you the very best.

QT

I am self-isolating. At least it gives me time to binge-watch Mindhunter.

Meanwhile bought approximately 200 lbs. of food…all storable, e.g. Sauerkraut…durable, vitamins – 10 packages those alone.

Italy:

CASES: 41,035 – up from 35,713 (+5,322 or 14.9%)
DEATHS: 3,405 – up from 2,978 (+427 or 14.3%)

Despite bio-lockdown, they currently are not able to double their infected people in a longer period than one week….nothing else to say. Meanwhile, US partying spring break.

Some people – very soon – will wake up.

Jacob: Self-isolation is good but take care in case of medical emergency someone knows about the situation. People collapse despite little symptoms..also, authorities should be aware about every person/spot you have met/been over the last two weeks (‘catching’ all of them). Largest problem of the disease is to not know the infection chain. Stopping one chain could safe thousands of lifes.

Austria the same: +22% infections – while 95% of the stores are closed, most people stay at home. Everybody working from home office, except substantial services. Still, 22%. And one county completely under quarantine.

This is not a flu but a military bio hazard going on, possibly the most malicious the world has ever seen. Better a 90% mortality solved in 3 months (of infected) than a 9% mortality over multiple years. Freshly from Chinese Wuhan Bio lab.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Ins … f_Virology

QT

I saw the news clip you refer to as ‘US partying spring break’ on television. Have to
say, made me disappointed to see such blatant disregard for the welfare of others.
I think the vast majority of people in the USA are taking this situation very seriously.

Here in rural Minnesota we’re relatively isolated. No confirmed cases in my
county….yet. Minnesota has 89 confirmed cases of COVID-19 at this time, mostly in the Twin Cities.

Expecting to see the number of infections rise substantially over the next 5 days or so.
There is a back log of tests that results will be in for over this time period.

New York, Washington and California are faring much worse.

I saw the news clip you refer to as ‘US partying spring break’ on television. Have to
say, made me disappointed to see such blatant disregard for the welfare of others.
I think the vast majority of people in the USA are taking this situation very seriously.

Here in rural Minnesota we’re relatively isolated. No confirmed cases in my
county….yet. Minnesota has 89 confirmed cases of COVID-19 at this time, mostly in the Twin Cities.

Expecting to see the number of infections rise substantially over the next 5 days or so.
There is a back log of tests that results will be in for over this time period.

New York, Washington and California are faring much worse.

Big cities in the US are going to take the blunt of this! Suxs but common sense!

Covid-19 cases in the US are now at 13,789 and rising. The % increase in cases for last 5 days has been:

3/14 to 3/15: 25.04%
3/15 to 3/16: 26.71%
3/17 to 3/18: 37.49%
3/18 to 3/19: 44.42%
3/19 to 3/20: 48.93%

The growth rate is consistently accelerating, presumably due to an increase in testing people for infection.
If the growth rate stays near 33%, we will be at 100,000 cases in 7 days. And at 1,000,000 by 15 days.
Serious and critical cases account for 8% of the total count. That means approximately 80,000 people will require intense hospitalization in the next 15 days. Enough people to fill a large football stadium.
Worldwide, the death rate for this thing averages out to 4% of all cases. A lot of it is due to hospitals running out of space and resources to handle the load.
That means we’re looking at about 40,000 americans dying over the next few weeks if we can’t flatten the curve.

FOLLOW THE GUIDELINES: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc … ntion.html

I can’t stress enough. Stay indoors, away from other people, and wash your hands constantly.

Approximately 270,000 cases as of today. New York top-ranked amongst the territories, #8.

Our Italian friends:

CASES: 47,021, up from 41,035 (+5,986 or 14.6% – slightly less growth than yesterday)
DEATHS: 4,032 – up from 3,405 (+627 or 18.4% – significantly more than yesterday)

Death toll from yesterday to today is +47% (627 up from 427). Crematories uncapable of handling the bodies, military transporting the coffins (which is why you can see such cars in the media).

Quarantine PROLONGED in Austria. Please – if you live in California – correct the Governour there: It is a huge mistake to allow gatherings of up to 10 people at the same time. In Italy, the streets are mostly EMPTY.

QT

US was at 10 in a million sick. Now is at 50 in a million sick.

World average is 50 in a million sick.

Would I be correct in saying it is not the number but the growth rate that is the problem?

In January is was 1. I am guessing Feb. it was 7 now it is 50 next month it could be 350?

Or do we run out of friends and family (contacts) at some point?

I guess you meant 100 in a million?

Yes – the growth rate is the number problem. The disease itself the health problem (‘organs collapsing due to lack of oxygene in blood, serious damages, pneumonia – slow feeling like drowning). System problem that not enough beds with breath support etc. Nine percent of medical staff infected in Italy, too. Quarantine – in other words: ALL BREAKING DOWN TO TROUBLE. And this is not to be the stock market but the fact that in 90 days, statistically, there will be no person on this planet without COVID-19.

Of course it will be different. But now is the time it decides about – dying – getting infected – having medical support or not (it might be better to get it now than in 8 weeks) – or never. Ever thought about smear infection? The meat you buy? Milk getting sour after a week? Eggs after latestly 8 months (stored intelligently)? Well..

Phase 1 – Unawareness
Phase 2 – First cases
Phase 3 – Medical actions (successful or not)
Phase 4 – Loss of control (‘outbreak’)
Phase 5 – Pandemia; last preparation (‘toilet paper shopping’)
Phase 6 – Ignorance, resignation, designation
Phase 7 – Extension of infections, deaths, globally
Phase 8 – Loss of substantial services (e.g. food delivery, electriciy, public safety)
Phase 9 – Additional outbreaks (bodies>rats> mutation/black disease etc.)
Phase 10 – Massive impact

IMO we are somewhere at Phase 5-7 – decide by yourself where exactly. Or at least ‘excessively working’ to keep Phase 4 instead of 5..

New York? I estimate a 100,000 beds to be required at least over the next few weeks. But who knows.

UPDATE:

New growth rate w/o China? 15.8% (report #60). Slightly increasing cases in – guess where – China, too. And yes: Despite all public / political awareness.

My personal opinion is, if anybody wants to hear, that this will go on for years. Also, that the time has come to prepare. However, the peak of the disease will not come earlier than in 12 weeks or so. I thought about camping in the wild for the next 2-3 months – did so before. But that is too early now. The question is, when is the best time to ‘leave’?

+40% in the US – 3,000 cases in New York alone. Watch out.

QT

when does herd immunity start to kick in QT

Yes it does. Humanity will and should survive…imo at the moment we are currently on a 0.2 to 3% level of the outbreak. Admitting that I might be wrong, of course. It also depends about which region/country we are talking about. With 50,000 people infected, there is still enough space for additional infections.

One million infected people will be done in a few days only.

For Austria, I’d estimate a maximum of 400k deaths, Europe approximately 40-80m over the next 24 months. High population density, infection everywhere already. Similar to an Influenza epidemic – currently comparable rates to 2017/18 outbreak, btw.

Roughly 10m infections, 4m deaths in the US – if gatherings of more than 2 people will continuingly be allowed. But it could be less, eg. Wyoming, Montana – as of lower population density. Nightmare up to come in regions like New York, Philadelophia etc. (in the hospitals), however.

If you have a cabin in the woods, this is a good time to go and do some renovation there (greet Ted Kaczynski).

But to answer your question:

Locally this may vary a lot. US should – immediately – stop flights, busses. CLOSE STATE BORDERS. In Europe, this is partially done. Eg. Germans cannot infect Austrians or Italians by travelling there anymore. THIS IS how the transmissions can be limited. Herd immunity kicks in with even the first immunized person meeting an infected one. Until then, each country can try to control the outbreak, one better than the other, for themselves. Avoid exchange over regions. Meanwhile, Tyrole is isolated, thus no infections from there at the moment. Previously to that, even Iceland had gotten a whole bunch of infected holidaymakers from there – and Austria had gotten it from Italy – they had gotten it from China etc…well, you know.

The PEAK, however, one way or another, I’d say will come in approximately 60 DAYS. Think it is not that significant how strong or fast the disease transmits, in 60 days many things will be either under control or not under control any more. Both leads to such peak.

Why not earlier? Because governments, hospitals etc. exists, actions are taken. Thus the virus has not the opportunity to e.g. multiply with factor 5 from one day to another. Opposite, even with all necessary actions taken, it will be hard to get the daily growth rate under 12% – as we can see in Italy, so far. Moreless, doubling every week, the peak will most likely be somewhat between 12th of May (my birthday) and 2nd of June (my dog Maxi’s birthday). This is scientifically proven, of course. :geek:

Here you go with an EPIDEMIC CALCULATOR:
http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

Thus, everybody may want to calculate/estimate by him-/herself. Let’s start the discussion…

Italy:

CASES: 53,578 (+6,557 or 13.9%)
DEATHS: 4,825 (+793 or 19.7%)

Out of 1,128 Italians, one is infected.

The question is not IF the US will forbid gatherings (temporarily) with more than two persons / stop all flights but WHEN.

QT

CORONA VIRUS TIP
and this is 100% serious !:

One tip, preventative and / or treatment, is to take a teaspoon of 80% Rum 3 times daily.
Into the mouth with 1 teaspoon of 80% rum, head back and roll with your head so that the whole palate and throat are scattered,
then the rum is swallowed. This way you get mouth, throat and throat sprinkled with 80% alcohol and possibly and Corona virus is killed.

My 40 year old son, who is Corona infected with a lot of semi-serious symptoms, got more or less symptomfree after this treatment for 2 days.

And please understand this 80% Rum is the ONLY kind of high % alcohol to use,
do NEVER EVER!!! use any kind of cleaning type alcohol
like Rubbing alcohol or Isopropyl Alcohol etc because then you could die !

Wish you all the best

Theforeigner