If I am not mistaken, 80 proof is 40% ethyl alcohol.

If I am not mistaken, 80 proof is 40% ethyl alcohol.

Nana, you are reading right: 80% Vol alcohol…nearly can’t swallow it (makes blind…)….usually used for cooking, e.g. creme brulée and stuff. Also available with less alcohol.

DESINFECTION might help but not inside the body (e.g. lung, blood). To inhale it? Yes, most likely helps a bit. Also helps in case your kids have infected ears after e.g. swimming for hours, immediately solves the burning inside the ear (antibacterial).

Your son most likely his still highly infective – urgent need for isolation. If you met him: Too.

80% Stroh Rum – btw a product on the market since decades – might help to desinfect. As I guess, however, most infections go via the eyes. Virus in the air – eye contact. Virus on the hand – touching the eye (or mouth, doesn’t matter). Wouldn’t use it for the eyes, though.

QT

Looks like you can get Stroh in 160, 80 40 proof. That is 80%, 40% and 20% alcohol.

If I get the beginnings of a sore throat or epiglottis, I take raw garlic clove and chew it till saliva and garlic is a slurry, and then swallow.

Does the trick most times. Takes an Olympian garlic chewer.

Italy: +10.4% – despite lockdown. 5,560 new cases, today a total of 651 people died having this virus.

US on position #3 now (new infections: Rock solid 33.7% day-to-day growth rate (+8,149). The death toll will be paid.

My advice: Take this disease a 100% serious. Personally, my ‘isolation’ currently looks as following:

– in February heard the first time of the disease, following news until today
– pretty late but 3 weeks ago I started to limit my social contacts down to 2 persons (except shop personnel)
– Approximately a week ago: powershopping, mask, gloves

Persons I have met over the last 3 weeks: 2
Persons I will meet over the next two weeks: 0

This disease requires a 100% reduction of – all of our – social contacts. Otherwise it will continue to spread out. Forget the idea of meeting friends, going to the office, having meetings etc. Better do it now than later.

On March 16th, the Austrian government gave a Covid-19 law to moreless stay at home / keep distance. Meanwhile, in whole Europe, the streets are EMPTY. Police is controlling, penalty is ~ USD 3.400. Hundreds if not thousands of penalties already given.

Empty railway stations, metro etc. – nobody, except a few people allowed to walk alone e.g. with dog. Nobody even dares anymore to go to any public places. Groups are even arrested when ordering 3 pizzas. Telecommunication companies deliver all phone data to the authorities, too.

Because of these strict actions, the daily new infections went down – slightly (still a few hundred per day). Still growing with almost 20% – per DAY. Still doubling in less than a week despite 98% of all people staying at home. Incubation time takes its toll.

IMO this is not a flu at all. It’s an artificially created bio-weapon; set-up to be as ‘efficient’ as possible.

If US doesn’t go a similar way, you will have 50,000 infections per day – easily – in less than one or two weeks, I guess. If you think you can still gather around with 2-3 people: Better get prepared for your last days (15% end up on ICU, if available).

Kindergarden, schools, official buildings etc – all closed.

Also: DO NOT SEND CHILDREN TO YOUR PARENTS. You might be killing them by doing so.

Herd immunity:

If one person infects 2.7 people in average (‘R0’ value), herd immunity ‘works’ if an average of 1.7 persons out of 2.7 is already immune. >>> 1 infects only one, disease remains ‘constant’. WU et al estimates 2.68, thus 206m Americans to be infected – then the disease will ‘stop’ growing by itself (still existing..).

QT

The 33% growth rate is definitely no joke.
In the USA we already have 33,546 cases. If the growth rate stays at 33%, here’s what the numbers of cases will look like:

After 1 day: 44,616
After 2 days: 59,339
After 3 days: 78,921
After 4 days: 104,965
After 5 days: 139,604
After 6 days: 185,673
After 7 days: 246,946
After 8 days: 328,438
After 9 days: 436,823
After 10 days: 580,974
After 11 days: 772,696
After 12 days: 1,027,686
After 13 days: 1,366,822
After 14 days: 1,817,874
After 15 days: 2,417,773
After 16 days: 3,215,638
After 17 days: 4,276,799
After 18 days: 5,688,143
After 19 days: 7,565,231
After 20 days: 10,061,758

Assuming a 4% mortality rate:
If we hit a million cases, that’s gonna be about 40,000 deaths.
If we hit ten million, cases, that’s gonna be about 400,000 deaths.

Even if the death rate was only 1% that’d still work out to 10,000 deaths and 100,000 deaths respectively.

VERY VERY VERY important to slow this growth rate down. VERY.

The 33% growth rate is definitely no joke.
In the USA we already have 33,546 cases. If the growth rate stays at 33%, here’s what the numbers of cases will look like:

After 1 day: 44,616
After 2 days: 59,339
After 3 days: 78,921
After 4 days: 104,965
After 5 days: 139,604
After 6 days: 185,673
After 7 days: 246,946
After 8 days: 328,438
After 9 days: 436,823
After 10 days: 580,974
After 11 days: 772,696
After 12 days: 1,027,686
After 13 days: 1,366,822
After 14 days: 1,817,874
After 15 days: 2,417,773
After 16 days: 3,215,638
After 17 days: 4,276,799
After 18 days: 5,688,143
After 19 days: 7,565,231
After 20 days: 10,061,758

Assuming a 4% mortality rate:
If we hit a million cases, that’s gonna be about 40,000 deaths.
If we hit ten million, cases, that’s gonna be about 400,000 deaths.

Even if the death rate was only 1% that’d still work out to 10,000 deaths and 100,000 deaths respectively.

VERY VERY VERY important to slow this growth rate down. VERY.

WOW bad stuff on the horizon.. i think the death rate multiplies when you run out of ventilators and medical staff.. 190,000 vents in the US thats italys problem as well

By contrast, what if we can reduce the growth rate a little each day?
Here’s what happens if we can chop down the rate by 10% each day:

After 1 day: 43,509 (growth rate: 29%)
After 2 days: 55,139 (growth rate: 26%)
After 3 days: 68,403 (growth rate: 24%)
After 4 days: 83,214 (growth rate: 21%)
After 5 days: 99,429 (growth rate: 19%)
After 6 days: 116,867 (growth rate: 17%)
After 7 days: 135,313 (growth rate: 15%)
After 8 days: 154,535 (growth rate: 14%)
After 9 days: 174,292 (growth rate: 12%)
After 10 days: 194,346 (growth rate: 11%)
After 11 days: 214,472 (growth rate: 10%)
After 12 days: 234,462 (growth rate: 9%)
After 13 days: 254,129 (growth rate: 8%)
After 14 days: 273,314 (growth rate: 7%)
After 15 days: 291,884 (growth rate: 6%)
After 16 days: 309,732 (growth rate: 6%)
After 17 days: 326,778 (growth rate: 5%)
After 18 days: 342,964 (growth rate: 4%)
After 19 days: 358,253 (growth rate: 4%)
After 20 days: 372,626 (growth rate: 4%)
After 21 days: 386,081 (growth rate: 3%)
After 22 days: 398,628 (growth rate: 3%)
After 23 days: 410,287 (growth rate: 2%)
After 24 days: 421,087 (growth rate: 2%)
After 25 days: 431,062 (growth rate: 2%)
After 26 days: 440,253 (growth rate: 2%)
After 27 days: 448,702 (growth rate: 1%)
After 28 days: 456,451 (growth rate: 1%)
After 29 days: 463,546 (growth rate: 1%)
After 30 days: 470,030 (growth rate: 1%)

So still almost a half million cases after 20 days. But it’s a lot better than 10 million cases!

Italy, the country at the #2 spot, is currently at 59,138 cases. Yesterday, its day to day growth rate was 10.38%.
If Italy holds that growth rate, and we hold our 33% growth rate, then we will have more cases than Italy within 5 days.
If we reduced our growth rate by 10% each day, we will still overtake Italy within 5 days.

If both we and Italy reduce our rates by 10% each day, then we overtake Italy in 4 days.

What about China? They are at 81,093 cases and their growth rate is essentially flat (0.05%).
We will exceed their case count in 4 days even if we reduced our growth rate by 10% each day.

It seems inevitable that the USA will be the #1 place for covid-19 infections within a week.

On the other hand, if we can chop out rate by 20% each day, the numbers look like this:

After 1 day: 42,402 (growth rate: 26%)
After 2 days: 51,357 (growth rate: 21%)
After 3 days: 60,034 (growth rate: 16%)
After 4 days: 68,149 (growth rate: 13%)
After 5 days: 75,518 (growth rate: 10%)
After 6 days: 82,051 (growth rate: 8%)
After 7 days: 87,730 (growth rate: 6%)
After 8 days: 92,587 (growth rate: 5%)
After 9 days: 96,688 (growth rate: 4%)
After 10 days: 100,114 (growth rate: 3%)
After 11 days: 102,952 (growth rate: 2%)
After 12 days: 105,287 (growth rate: 2%)
After 13 days: 107,197 (growth rate: 1%)
After 14 days: 108,753 (growth rate: 1%)
After 15 days: 110,015 (growth rate: 1%)
After 16 days: 111,037 (growth rate: 0%)
After 17 days: 111,862 (growth rate: 0%)
After 18 days: 112,527 (growth rate: 0%)
After 19 days: 113,062 (growth rate: 0%)
After 20 days: 113,493 (growth rate: 0%)

So we would level out a bit over 100,000 cases.
Doesn’t seem likely to slow down that quickly but that’s a good demonstration of the significance of the changes in growth rate.

Italy, the country at the #2 spot, is currently at 59,138 cases. Yesterday, its day to day growth rate was 10.38%.
If Italy holds that growth rate, and we hold our 33% growth rate, then we will have more cases than Italy within 5 days.
If we reduced our growth rate by 10% each day, we will still overtake Italy within 5 days.

If both we and Italy reduce our rates by 10% each day, then we overtake Italy in 4 days.

What about China? They are at 81,093 cases and their growth rate is essentially flat (0.05%).
We will exceed their case count in 4 days even if we reduced our growth rate by 10% each day.

It seems inevitable that the USA will be the #1 place for covid-19 infections within a week.

without being political because this is above politics, it seems insane cosidering your president said "the 15, within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero." it feels like he said that only a few weeks ago..the spread rate is staggering and the challenge to suppress seems woefully inadequate.
i feel the light at the end of the tunnel is a train comming at us.

Per request from Mr. Lowe, current flights over the USA:

Still a large amount of flying going on.

Italy, the country at the #2 spot, is currently at 59,138 cases. Yesterday, its day to day growth rate was 10.38%.
If Italy holds that growth rate, and we hold our 33% growth rate, then we will have more cases than Italy within 5 days.
If we reduced our growth rate by 10% each day, we will still overtake Italy within 5 days.

If both we and Italy reduce our rates by 10% each day, then we overtake Italy in 4 days.

What about China? They are at 81,093 cases and their growth rate is essentially flat (0.05%).
We will exceed their case count in 4 days even if we reduced our growth rate by 10% each day.

It seems inevitable that the USA will be the #1 place for covid-19 infections within a week.

without being political because this is above politics, it seems insane cosidering your president said "the 15, within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero." it feels like he said that only a few weeks ago..the spread rate is staggering and the challenge to suppress seems woefully inadequate.
i feel the light at the end of the tunnel is a train comming at us.

This is because we elected an idiotic reality show star with a Twitter addiction because many Americans hate brown and poor people.

Now we are paying the price.

Italy, the country at the #2 spot, is currently at 59,138 cases. Yesterday, its day to day growth rate was 10.38%.
If Italy holds that growth rate, and we hold our 33% growth rate, then we will have more cases than Italy within 5 days.
If we reduced our growth rate by 10% each day, we will still overtake Italy within 5 days.

If both we and Italy reduce our rates by 10% each day, then we overtake Italy in 4 days.

What about China? They are at 81,093 cases and their growth rate is essentially flat (0.05%).
We will exceed their case count in 4 days even if we reduced our growth rate by 10% each day.

It seems inevitable that the USA will be the #1 place for covid-19 infections within a week.

without being political because this is above politics, it seems insane cosidering your president said "the 15, within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero." it feels like he said that only a few weeks ago..the spread rate is staggering and the challenge to suppress seems woefully inadequate.
i feel the light at the end of the tunnel is a train comming at us.

This is because we elected an idiotic reality show star with a Twitter addiction because many Americans hate brown and poor people.

Now we are paying the price.

You are right – when I started this thread, the least I expected was people talking about politics.

Ebola, Corona and possibly other (future) diseases may be discussed without blaming other people, whomever that is. "Survival tipps" is to help through such crisis, passively, as a part of the hangout zone, Anyway, I’d like to respond on that:

– The cite you quoted was from Feb 26th. At that time, ‘only’ 15 infected people – seemed to be a ‘controllable’ outbreak. Most likely, those 15 were indeed quarantined, sooner or later, but hadn’t it been only 15 but possibly 150 already. What else would you have expected? A politician telling you "we have 15 cases – now we are all doomed?"

– The speed rate is staggering, absolutely right with that one. Most of the territories in this world are not able to handle it, including Angela Merkel (German chancellor).

– Regarding "we elected an idiotic reality show star": If you are right with that one – what have you donefor this country, so far?

– Regarding "who hate brown and poor people": Even if somebody hates them – which I doubt – why care about it? In fact I think not many people hate poor people at all. But does that mean they are handled differently? How do you define poor at all, as long as somebody (monetary) does not show his bank statement? 90% have their own responsibility. How much groceries did you produce instead of ‘buying’ it with money, not having produced them by yourself? Do all ‘brown’ people love white ones? Racism discussion is nonsense, out of date, as long as the rights are covered for both, which is the case since Martin Luther King – isn’t it?

– Regarding "Now we are paying the price.": First of all, the virus is NOT from inside our nations but a different one. Thus, it could have been better to set up a 50m high fence to not get any of other nation’s diseases. But our world is open for this, thus, it happened. So if you mention "now we are paying the price", in connection with some ‘idiotic reality star‘ you simply chevy against some theoretical construct. Goebbels did that, too, just saying.

So, it’s moreless a useless discussion, imo. Politics, one way or another, is not related to the virus. It’s up to all of us to do something against it, e.g. by staying at home. Reconsider, however, to blame other people for such disease (the ‘Spanish’ flu did come from South America, but was fist found in Spain..so the Spanish were not responsible for that one, either..).

QT

Austria: +72% daily cases despite bio-lockdown since March 16th. Globally, 272k infected – more than 1/4 of a million.

I will later post some pictures from a walk I decided to make in Vienna (today). One guy coughing around over a distance of less than 100 yards, wonder why he did walk around at all – but no police nearby. First time, feelings are not only worried, frightened, anxious but sad about the development of the disease.

QT