"MORITURI TE SALUTANT"

I know Austria might be boring for most of you but to compare:

After ~820 cases per day we had a drop down to 305. Made me wondering and up it is today to 1115 again. We have this based on ~1/50th of US population. Thus, a factor 50 multiplication will most likely follow in the US – just for one reason: It started there weeks later than in Austria.

Be prepared to expect up to 350,000 infections PER DAY.

Everybody can have a look on the numbers by himself…USA not bad today but this will be temporary…to control 7,500 cases, with possibly twice the amount of infections unknown, is simply impossble.

Thus, get yourself prepared. Expect people ‘arriving’ from other regions as they flee – infected or not. You will wonder how many tourists your village / how empty your city will be, if not already is. And do not get irritated by people behaving ‘normal’ they just have no clue about statistics..(hardly I do..)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

510,686 cases. Ten days ago: 182,414 (on average a ~15.5% daily growth rate; outside China).

QT

By the end of yesterday there were 471,035 cases worldwide, with 21,282 deaths (4.5% of all cases).
Growth rate day to day hovers somewhere around 11.5%. If growth and death rates don’t change, the next 30 days look like this:

Day 1, 11.47% growth, 525,063 cases, 23,628 deaths
Day 2, 11.47% growth, 585,287 cases, 26,338 deaths
Day 3, 11.47% growth, 652,420 cases, 29,359 deaths
Day 4, 11.47% growth, 727,252 cases, 32,726 deaths
Day 5, 11.47% growth, 810,668 cases, 36,480 deaths
Day 6, 11.47% growth, 903,652 cases, 40,664 deaths
Day 7, 11.47% growth, 1,007,301 cases, 45,329 deaths
Day 8, 11.47% growth, 1,122,838 cases, 50,528 deaths
Day 9, 11.47% growth, 1,251,628 cases, 56,323 deaths
Day 10, 11.47% growth, 1,395,189 cases, 62,784 deaths
Day 11, 11.47% growth, 1,555,218 cases, 69,985 deaths
Day 12, 11.47% growth, 1,733,601 cases, 78,012 deaths
Day 13, 11.47% growth, 1,932,445 cases, 86,960 deaths
Day 14, 11.47% growth, 2,154,097 cases, 96,934 deaths
Day 15, 11.47% growth, 2,401,172 cases, 108,053 deaths
Day 16, 11.47% growth, 2,676,586 cases, 120,446 deaths
Day 17, 11.47% growth, 2,983,590 cases, 134,262 deaths
Day 18, 11.47% growth, 3,325,808 cases, 149,661 deaths
Day 19, 11.47% growth, 3,707,278 cases, 166,828 deaths
Day 20, 11.47% growth, 4,132,503 cases, 185,963 deaths
Day 21, 11.47% growth, 4,606,501 cases, 207,293 deaths
Day 22, 11.47% growth, 5,134,867 cases, 231,069 deaths
Day 23, 11.47% growth, 5,723,836 cases, 257,573 deaths
Day 24, 11.47% growth, 6,380,360 cases, 287,116 deaths
Day 25, 11.47% growth, 7,112,188 cases, 320,048 deaths
Day 26, 11.47% growth, 7,927,956 cases, 356,758 deaths
Day 27, 11.47% growth, 8,837,292 cases, 397,678 deaths
Day 28, 11.47% growth, 9,850,929 cases, 443,292 deaths
Day 29, 11.47% growth, 10,980,831 cases, 494,137 deaths
Day 30, 11.47% growth, 12,240,332 cases, 550,815 deaths

If we can reduce the growth rate by 4% each day (we saw a similar slowdown in growth in US cases in the past few days), here’s what the next 30 days look like:

Day 1, 11.01% growth, 522,902 cases, 23,531 deaths
Day 2, 10.57% growth, 578,176 cases, 26,018 deaths
Day 3, 10.15% growth, 636,849 cases, 28,658 deaths
Day 4, 9.74% growth, 698,891 cases, 31,450 deaths
Day 5, 9.35% growth, 764,254 cases, 34,391 deaths
Day 6, 8.98% growth, 832,870 cases, 37,479 deaths
Day 7, 8.62% growth, 904,656 cases, 40,710 deaths
Day 8, 8.27% growth, 979,510 cases, 44,078 deaths
Day 9, 7.94% growth, 1,057,316 cases, 47,579 deaths
Day 10, 7.63% growth, 1,137,943 cases, 51,207 deaths
Day 11, 7.32% growth, 1,221,248 cases, 54,956 deaths
Day 12, 7.03% growth, 1,307,074 cases, 58,818 deaths
Day 13, 6.75% growth, 1,395,258 cases, 62,787 deaths
Day 14, 6.48% growth, 1,485,626 cases, 66,853 deaths
Day 15, 6.22% growth, 1,577,999 cases, 71,010 deaths
Day 16, 5.97% growth, 1,672,190 cases, 75,249 deaths
Day 17, 5.73% growth, 1,768,011 cases, 79,560 deaths
Day 18, 5.5% growth, 1,865,270 cases, 83,937 deaths
Day 19, 5.28% growth, 1,963,775 cases, 88,370 deaths
Day 20, 5.07% growth, 2,063,334 cases, 92,850 deaths
Day 21, 4.87% growth, 2,163,755 cases, 97,369 deaths
Day 22, 4.67% growth, 2,264,853 cases, 101,918 deaths
Day 23, 4.49% growth, 2,366,440 cases, 106,490 deaths
Day 24, 4.31% growth, 2,468,339 cases, 111,075 deaths
Day 25, 4.13% growth, 2,570,374 cases, 115,667 deaths
Day 26, 3.97% growth, 2,672,377 cases, 120,257 deaths
Day 27, 3.81% growth, 2,774,185 cases, 124,838 deaths
Day 28, 3.66% growth, 2,875,645 cases, 129,404 deaths
Day 29, 3.51% growth, 2,976,609 cases, 133,947 deaths
Day 30, 3.37% growth, 3,076,937 cases, 138,462 deaths

Big difference, but still bad.

those numbers are staggering.. only 30 days..

total isolation of the elderly the sick and the infirmed will drastically bring the death rate ratio down (for now)

hopefully the 15 minute screening test works. this will drastically reduce the overall new infection rate.

a home test kit for every person would be the key in near total flatlining the growth rate.

finding existing drugs that assist… i believe a japanese drug is being used by the chinese… without evidence i am guessing it helped.

india and similar countries are the next big problem .. the virus will kill a lot.. but the economic impact will kill more with starvation and lack of medical assistance, once the full global financial decline hits..

for some countries the cure of isolation maybe worse than the virus

US 20%, Austria 22.5% already. Sorry I talk about Austria that often, but it is just an example, like Iowa, Australia, Minnesota, Florida, etc. is each for itself. We prognosed US to become top 3 from #14 or so – this is what is happening, scaringly real.

@Mr. Iowe: Yes, isolation of the elderly. But also the youth. Although we have the law for both, significantly, 22.5% growth per day. This shit is transmitting like hell.

Protect your farms guys.

QT

US just hit #1.

so surreal.. its like living in a FUCKING hollywood movie, trouble is it does not go away .. the real heroes have not yet got the antedote worked out.
stressed to the max my beautiful country is falling apart and the virus and its rage is in its infancy.

sorry my positivity is wearing thin.

i want you all to come to Australia one day so start making plans, something to look forward to (port douglas,the great barrier reef) my favourite place on earth.
remember there is a start and finish to everything.. its just the struggle street time in between.

37 days.

In 37 days, at the current growth rate, the disease will have reached – statistically – every US citizen.

You still be in the better position: Austria is 35 days..

When people sick, however, their mobility reduces, too. But the next eight weeks will be interesting.

QT

37 days.
In 37 days, at the current growth rate, the disease will have reached – statistically – every US citizen.
You still be in the better position: Austria is 35 days..
When people sick, however, their mobility reduces, too. But the next eight weeks will be interesting.
QT

I’m not sure that is physically possible.
If half of the US population is infected, then when an infected person contacts some other random person, there is a much smaller chance of a new infection because the other person may already have antibodies against the virus. So, you’d expect the growth rate to gradually decrease naturally, even without any interventions. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean that 100% of people who CAN be infected WON’T be infected after some amount of time. But I bet it is much longer than 37 days.

The question is, what will the changes in growth rate be over the next 30+ days?

By the end of yesterday there were 471,035 cases worldwide, with 21,282 deaths (4.5% of all cases).
Growth rate day to day hovers somewhere around 11.5%. If growth and death rates don’t change, the next 30 days look like this:

Day 1, 11.47% growth, 525,063 cases, 23,628 deaths
Day 2, 11.47% growth, 585,287 cases, 26,338 deaths
Day 3, 11.47% growth, 652,420 cases, 29,359 deaths
Day 4, 11.47% growth, 727,252 cases, 32,726 deaths
Day 5, 11.47% growth, 810,668 cases, 36,480 deaths
Day 6, 11.47% growth, 903,652 cases, 40,664 deaths
Day 7, 11.47% growth, 1,007,301 cases, 45,329 deaths
Day 8, 11.47% growth, 1,122,838 cases, 50,528 deaths
Day 9, 11.47% growth, 1,251,628 cases, 56,323 deaths
Day 10, 11.47% growth, 1,395,189 cases, 62,784 deaths
Day 11, 11.47% growth, 1,555,218 cases, 69,985 deaths
Day 12, 11.47% growth, 1,733,601 cases, 78,012 deaths
Day 13, 11.47% growth, 1,932,445 cases, 86,960 deaths
Day 14, 11.47% growth, 2,154,097 cases, 96,934 deaths
Day 15, 11.47% growth, 2,401,172 cases, 108,053 deaths
Day 16, 11.47% growth, 2,676,586 cases, 120,446 deaths
Day 17, 11.47% growth, 2,983,590 cases, 134,262 deaths
Day 18, 11.47% growth, 3,325,808 cases, 149,661 deaths
Day 19, 11.47% growth, 3,707,278 cases, 166,828 deaths
Day 20, 11.47% growth, 4,132,503 cases, 185,963 deaths
Day 21, 11.47% growth, 4,606,501 cases, 207,293 deaths
Day 22, 11.47% growth, 5,134,867 cases, 231,069 deaths
Day 23, 11.47% growth, 5,723,836 cases, 257,573 deaths
Day 24, 11.47% growth, 6,380,360 cases, 287,116 deaths
Day 25, 11.47% growth, 7,112,188 cases, 320,048 deaths
Day 26, 11.47% growth, 7,927,956 cases, 356,758 deaths
Day 27, 11.47% growth, 8,837,292 cases, 397,678 deaths
Day 28, 11.47% growth, 9,850,929 cases, 443,292 deaths
Day 29, 11.47% growth, 10,980,831 cases, 494,137 deaths
Day 30, 11.47% growth, 12,240,332 cases, 550,815 deaths

If we can reduce the growth rate by 4% each day (we saw a similar slowdown in growth in US cases in the past few days), here’s what the next 30 days look like:

Day 1, 11.01% growth, 522,902 cases, 23,531 deaths
Day 2, 10.57% growth, 578,176 cases, 26,018 deaths
Day 3, 10.15% growth, 636,849 cases, 28,658 deaths
Day 4, 9.74% growth, 698,891 cases, 31,450 deaths
Day 5, 9.35% growth, 764,254 cases, 34,391 deaths
Day 6, 8.98% growth, 832,870 cases, 37,479 deaths
Day 7, 8.62% growth, 904,656 cases, 40,710 deaths
Day 8, 8.27% growth, 979,510 cases, 44,078 deaths
Day 9, 7.94% growth, 1,057,316 cases, 47,579 deaths
Day 10, 7.63% growth, 1,137,943 cases, 51,207 deaths
Day 11, 7.32% growth, 1,221,248 cases, 54,956 deaths
Day 12, 7.03% growth, 1,307,074 cases, 58,818 deaths
Day 13, 6.75% growth, 1,395,258 cases, 62,787 deaths
Day 14, 6.48% growth, 1,485,626 cases, 66,853 deaths
Day 15, 6.22% growth, 1,577,999 cases, 71,010 deaths
Day 16, 5.97% growth, 1,672,190 cases, 75,249 deaths
Day 17, 5.73% growth, 1,768,011 cases, 79,560 deaths
Day 18, 5.5% growth, 1,865,270 cases, 83,937 deaths
Day 19, 5.28% growth, 1,963,775 cases, 88,370 deaths
Day 20, 5.07% growth, 2,063,334 cases, 92,850 deaths
Day 21, 4.87% growth, 2,163,755 cases, 97,369 deaths
Day 22, 4.67% growth, 2,264,853 cases, 101,918 deaths
Day 23, 4.49% growth, 2,366,440 cases, 106,490 deaths
Day 24, 4.31% growth, 2,468,339 cases, 111,075 deaths
Day 25, 4.13% growth, 2,570,374 cases, 115,667 deaths
Day 26, 3.97% growth, 2,672,377 cases, 120,257 deaths
Day 27, 3.81% growth, 2,774,185 cases, 124,838 deaths
Day 28, 3.66% growth, 2,875,645 cases, 129,404 deaths
Day 29, 3.51% growth, 2,976,609 cases, 133,947 deaths
Day 30, 3.37% growth, 3,076,937 cases, 138,462 deaths

Big difference, but still bad.

What do these numbers looks like just for the US?

What do these numbers looks like just for the US?

If growth rate is constant:

Day 1, 25.3% growth, 107,050 cases, 1,606 deaths
Day 2, 25.3% growth, 134,134 cases, 2,012 deaths
Day 3, 25.3% growth, 168,070 cases, 2,521 deaths
Day 4, 25.3% growth, 210,591 cases, 3,159 deaths
Day 5, 25.3% growth, 263,871 cases, 3,958 deaths
Day 6, 25.3% growth, 330,630 cases, 4,959 deaths
Day 7, 25.3% growth, 414,279 cases, 6,214 deaths
Day 8, 25.3% growth, 519,092 cases, 7,786 deaths
Day 9, 25.3% growth, 650,422 cases, 9,756 deaths
Day 10, 25.3% growth, 814,979 cases, 12,225 deaths
Day 11, 25.3% growth, 1,021,169 cases, 15,318 deaths
Day 12, 25.3% growth, 1,279,525 cases, 19,193 deaths
Day 13, 25.3% growth, 1,603,244 cases, 24,049 deaths
Day 14, 25.3% growth, 2,008,865 cases, 30,133 deaths
Day 15, 25.3% growth, 2,517,108 cases, 37,757 deaths
Day 16, 25.3% growth, 3,153,937 cases, 47,309 deaths
Day 17, 25.3% growth, 3,951,883 cases, 59,278 deaths
Day 18, 25.3% growth, 4,951,709 cases, 74,276 deaths
Day 19, 25.3% growth, 6,204,491 cases, 93,067 deaths
Day 20, 25.3% growth, 7,774,227 cases, 116,613 deaths
Day 21, 25.3% growth, 9,741,107 cases, 146,117 deaths
Day 22, 25.3% growth, 12,205,607 cases, 183,084 deaths
Day 23, 25.3% growth, 15,293,626 cases, 229,404 deaths
Day 24, 25.3% growth, 19,162,913 cases, 287,444 deaths
Day 25, 25.3% growth, 24,011,130 cases, 360,167 deaths
Day 26, 25.3% growth, 30,085,946 cases, 451,289 deaths
Day 27, 25.3% growth, 37,697,690 cases, 565,465 deaths
Day 28, 25.3% growth, 47,235,206 cases, 708,528 deaths
Day 29, 25.3% growth, 59,185,713 cases, 887,786 deaths
Day 30, 25.3% growth, 74,159,698 cases, 1,112,395 deaths

If growth rate falls a little each day:

Day 1, 24.54% growth, 106,402 cases, 1,596 deaths
Day 2, 23.8% growth, 131,730 cases, 1,976 deaths
Day 3, 23.09% growth, 162,148 cases, 2,432 deaths
Day 4, 22.4% growth, 198,465 cases, 2,977 deaths
Day 5, 21.73% growth, 241,584 cases, 3,624 deaths
Day 6, 21.07% growth, 292,496 cases, 4,387 deaths
Day 7, 20.44% growth, 352,287 cases, 5,284 deaths
Day 8, 19.83% growth, 422,142 cases, 6,332 deaths
Day 9, 19.23% growth, 503,336 cases, 7,550 deaths
Day 10, 18.66% growth, 597,242 cases, 8,959 deaths
Day 11, 18.1% growth, 705,326 cases, 10,580 deaths
Day 12, 17.55% growth, 829,140 cases, 12,437 deaths
Day 13, 17.03% growth, 970,323 cases, 14,555 deaths
Day 14, 16.52% growth, 1,130,588 cases, 16,959 deaths
Day 15, 16.02% growth, 1,311,723 cases, 19,676 deaths
Day 16, 15.54% growth, 1,515,573 cases, 22,734 deaths
Day 17, 15.07% growth, 1,744,036 cases, 26,161 deaths
Day 18, 14.62% growth, 1,999,052 cases, 29,986 deaths
Day 19, 14.18% growth, 2,282,588 cases, 34,239 deaths
Day 20, 13.76% growth, 2,596,626 cases, 38,949 deaths
Day 21, 13.35% growth, 2,943,152 cases, 44,147 deaths
Day 22, 12.94% growth, 3,324,140 cases, 49,862 deaths
Day 23, 12.56% growth, 3,741,538 cases, 56,123 deaths
Day 24, 12.18% growth, 4,197,252 cases, 62,959 deaths
Day 25, 11.81% growth, 4,693,134 cases, 70,397 deaths
Day 26, 11.46% growth, 5,230,969 cases, 78,465 deaths
Day 27, 11.12% growth, 5,812,455 cases, 87,187 deaths
Day 28, 10.78% growth, 6,439,197 cases, 96,588 deaths
Day 29, 10.46% growth, 7,112,689 cases, 106,690 deaths
Day 30, 10.15% growth, 7,834,305 cases, 117,515 deaths

If growth rate falls more dramatically:

Day 1, 23.78% growth, 105,753 cases, 1,586 deaths
Day 2, 22.36% growth, 129,394 cases, 1,941 deaths
Day 3, 21.01% growth, 156,585 cases, 2,349 deaths
Day 4, 19.75% growth, 187,515 cases, 2,813 deaths
Day 5, 18.57% growth, 222,333 cases, 3,335 deaths
Day 6, 17.45% growth, 261,138 cases, 3,917 deaths
Day 7, 16.41% growth, 303,981 cases, 4,560 deaths
Day 8, 15.42% growth, 350,862 cases, 5,263 deaths
Day 9, 14.5% growth, 401,725 cases, 6,026 deaths
Day 10, 13.63% growth, 456,468 cases, 6,847 deaths
Day 11, 12.81% growth, 514,939 cases, 7,724 deaths
Day 12, 12.04% growth, 576,941 cases, 8,654 deaths
Day 13, 11.32% growth, 642,242 cases, 9,634 deaths
Day 14, 10.64% growth, 710,571 cases, 10,659 deaths
Day 15, 10.0% growth, 781,635 cases, 11,725 deaths
Day 16, 9.4% growth, 855,115 cases, 12,827 deaths
Day 17, 8.84% growth, 930,679 cases, 13,960 deaths
Day 18, 8.31% growth, 1,007,987 cases, 15,120 deaths
Day 19, 7.81% growth, 1,086,692 cases, 16,300 deaths
Day 20, 7.34% growth, 1,166,452 cases, 17,497 deaths
Day 21, 6.9% growth, 1,246,929 cases, 18,704 deaths
Day 22, 6.49% growth, 1,327,797 cases, 19,917 deaths
Day 23, 6.1% growth, 1,408,742 cases, 21,131 deaths
Day 24, 5.73% growth, 1,489,470 cases, 22,342 deaths
Day 25, 5.39% growth, 1,569,702 cases, 23,546 deaths
Day 26, 5.06% growth, 1,649,183 cases, 24,738 deaths
Day 27, 4.76% growth, 1,727,677 cases, 25,915 deaths
Day 28, 4.47% growth, 1,804,975 cases, 27,075 deaths
Day 29, 4.21% growth, 1,880,885 cases, 28,213 deaths
Day 30, 3.95% growth, 1,955,241 cases, 29,329 deaths

Whatever the growth curve ends up being will seal our fate.

Ohio prognosed 6-8,000 cases a day
https://www.dumpert.nl/item/7877003_39004cfe

New York:
On March 20, prognosis was that NY will need at least 100,000 ICU places.

"Need a total of 40,000 ICU beds. Currently have 3,000, with 3,000 ventilators. An additional 37,000 ICU beds are needed" ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ )

USA:
100,359 cases – first time over 100k, growth at least 18% today.

CHINA – riots because people do not understand continuing of isolation. All borders CLOSED.
https://twitter.com/badiucao/status/1243483531247931392

QT

Dear friends

I hope all of you are doing ok in this challenging and scary time .

Here is a moving and beautiful song for you all, a song by danish sing and songwriter Oh Land.
Oh Land wrote the song a couple of weeks ago.
The name of the song is ”I Miss One Week Ago” written and sung by Oh Land.

<3 from Theforeigner

https://www.ohlandmusic.com/

"I Miss One Week Ago"

I miss one week ago
One week ago from now
I worried that I’d lost my phone
And everyone who tried to reach me
Would be quite annoyed
One week ago I worried ’bout a phone

I miss one week ago
One week ago from now
When I was running late again
And missed my exit on the freeway
Couldn’t make a turn
One week ago I worried I was late

I miss one week ago
One week ago from now
I wondered who would appreciate
Or even get the music
That I’m trying to create
One week ago I worried out of vain

I miss one week ago
One week ago from now
I got upset at 6am
When birds were chirping violently
And the sun was peeking in
One week ago I worried would I fall asleep again
(Fall asleep again)

I miss one week ago
One week ago from now
I worried ’bout a million things
And all of them irrelevant
‘Cause everything has changed
And of all my previous worries I’m ashamed

Dear friends

I hope all of you are doing ok in this challenging and scary time .

Here is a moving and beautiful song for you all, a song by danish sing and songwriter Oh Land.
Oh Land wrote the song a couple of weeks ago.
The name of the song is ”I Miss One Week Ago” written and sung by Oh Land.

<3 from Theforeigner

https://www.ohlandmusic.com/

"I Miss One Week Ago"

That’s lovely TF. Mind if I share that on FB?

I have been following the zodiac web sites for a number of years ( a whole lot of years ) and Never really officially introduce myself Better late than never hello one and all ! I’ve really appreciate Reading Everyone’s post/ detective work thank you and please stay strong and safe . And The Foreigner I hope that your son is on the mend.

I have been following the zodiac web sites for a number of years ( a whole lot of years ) and Never really officially introduce myself Better late than never hello one and all ! I’ve really appreciate Reading Everyone’s post/ detective work thank you and please stay strong and safe . And The Foreigner I hope that your son is on the mend.

Hey Indubitably. Nearby is see although I guess anywhere here could be classed as that . A belated welcome to the board.