I am reading a fascinating book- perhaps some of you have read it as it was a bestseller- called "The Black Swan-The Impact of the Highly Improbable". Its a FASCINATING book and I think it is very germane to the Zodiac.
The author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, talks about how huge events in history and even in our personal lives are not subject to planning, that the greatest events seem to arise out of nowhere. (Which also reminds me of Derrida’s idea of there being two types of future- one that we believe we can plan for, and the one that actually happens, which is the one we CAN’T plan for). He talks at length about growing up in Lebanon, and how the Levant mindset was that "our country has always been fairly peaceful, we are unusual, nothing will happen here". Of course, then it all went to hell, and he talked about how emigres from his country (and many others) tend to live their lives in permanent exile, as if they don’t really believe that what has happened is permanent and cannot grasp the impact of these highly improbable events.
What I find so interesting is that when I look back at my own life and even the big events I have lived through (911 etc) they really did seem to come out of left field. Of course, we can argue all day about how those in power knew that the towers were threatened, but that’s not my point.
The point is that Taleb is talking about how people measure life by some sort of statistical, "this is how it always happens" way that isn’t always applicable, and that accounting for the "black swan" in situations is where the answer to the meaning of these events lie. This led me to consider profiling, which is in fact, statistical in nature. A certain number of killers demonstrated a certain number of the same proclivities, and we have comforted ourselves in believing that all crimes can be handled in this manner.
I think it is obvious at this point that Z exists outside of what we think we know.
I think it is always something to consider that profiling is based on crimes that have been SOLVED. There is, to be sure, a fair amount of predictability in many killer’s actions. We can extrapolate that in the future, he will conduct himself in a certain way, there will be a certain amount of "tells", a certain number of levels he will pass through. You can see this to some degree with Z in that there was an acceleration. He killed some people, didn’t talk about it much, then he began to talk about it, then he began to call himself the Zodiac, and so on. It gained momentum.
Being a huge fan of quantum physics, there is that bedrock belief that the observer changes what he observes. And as Taleb stresses in his book, we tend to organize events in our mind as if there is a clear line of causation- things make sense in our rearview mirror because our mind organizes them as such. And not only that, there is an inevitable degree of personalization that occurs. We chose our beliefs according to what we already believe is possible, and we do not account for "the black swans" that are so often the real cause of catastrophic events, and we organize them as we wish, because they are no longer happening. We render the highly improbable as being probable for such and such a reason. Its somewhat in line with chaos theory in this regard as well.
As I have discussed before elsewhere in this forum, Richard Walter’s profile of Z as being someone who was accomplished kind of turned it all over for me in terms of what I THOUGHT i knew. And I am beginning to believe that the more we focus on tiny details and three stroke k’s and the DNA being infallible the more we lose sight of the bigger picture, because focusing in doesn’t quite do what I always believed it did. In fact, it changes, according to the beliefs we already hold. Whatever suspect any of us hold dear, that is what we are going to see. But what we are seeing may not be the truth, because we are only basing our beliefs on those crimes that have already been solved. We use orthodoxy, and maybe orthodoxy is not always the best path to take with someone like Z.
Anyway, its something that has sort of taken over my mind and there could be very obvious things that maybe we have all missed by endless poring. It makes me want to look at more accomplished, even famous people that no one would have ever considered. Still not quite convinced on anyone, but I think that keeping these important points in mind might lead to someplace NEW. Because there are some VERY well-trod paths here.
Reminds me of something my anthropology teacher talked about recently, about how when a ball rolls downhill, it creates a groove. And most likely, the next ball will follow that groove, and the next, and the next. And all the while, there is a massive hill that has no lines drawn in it. The frustrating sense of Z being just out of reach, haunting my peripheral vision, is just like that. That maybe stopping to look up could be a good exercise for all of us when we get lost in minutae, or when we get the damnable "tunnel vision" that so many are prey to.
Just some thoughts.
Definitely a good read..liked it, too.
QT
*ZODIACHRONOLOGY*
I have never heard of the book and so I have not read it. I very much liked your post. Well written and certainly well thought out. I agree with you in many ways than one. I wonder, have you looked into Gestalt psychology any? If you can get past the whole "my eyes see this when that is presented" I think you will find that it ties a lot into what you described in your post. I like it very much and do believe that the Zodiac was full aware of its workings.
Soze
I loved the part regarding the casinos in Las Vegas. The five biggest losses did not derive from gambling. Instead, things such as tax issues, a construction company or a kidnapped casino owner’s daughter were the reasons for the biggest losses.
It’s all about seeing the things that are not yet there.
This is why I’ll now post my survival guide in the ‘hangout’ zone.
QT
*ZODIACHRONOLOGY*
I have never heard of the book and so I have not read it. I very much liked your post. Well written and certainly well thought out. I agree with you in many ways than one. I wonder, have you looked into Gestalt psychology any? If you can get past the whole "my eyes see this when that is presented" I think you will find that it ties a lot into what you described in your post. I like it very much and do believe that the Zodiac was full aware of its workings.
Soze
Thank you Soze! 
Yes, I am definitely finding corollaries EVERYWHERE since i started reading this book. I have been reading "A Mind for Numbers" as I am an engineering student and I am finding that the best ways to study are counterintuitive- short periods, followed by daydreaming, walks, or naps. Focused versus diffused. Its very much in keeping with the overall idea of not becoming too comfortable with orthodoxy of any kind, because the more often you underscore this orthodoxy the less you will be able to see connections between outlying concepts. You will just go to what you know, skipping what you don’t, and applying a pattern that may or may not be "true". But "truth" itself is a rubbery, messy concept anyway! But whether its studying, crime solving or looking at historical events it seems above all one must be careful to have a rough overall picture, but allow enough "space" in between to come up with intuitive flashes, instead of just hammer and hammer and hammer away in a focused manner- like cramming for a test- or getting tunnel vision on your favorite suspect.
Sometimes I imagine in my mind what we really, really know about Z, and lines extending from those facts into every possible prismatic probability. I suspect it would look like a maddening network like the World Wide Web. No WONDER there are so much serendipity in a "system" like this – with so many lines, how could there not be? With so many possibilities? So many ways to look at the very same thing?
Thank you Soze!
Yes, I am definitely finding corollaries EVERYWHERE since i started reading this book. I have been reading "A Mind for Numbers" as I am an engineering student and I am finding that the best ways to study are counterintuitive- short periods, followed by daydreaming, walks, or naps. Focused versus diffused. Its very much in keeping with the overall idea of not becoming too comfortable with orthodoxy of any kind, because the more often you underscore this orthodoxy the less you will be able to see connections between outlying concepts. You will just go to what you know, skipping what you don’t, and applying a pattern that may or may not be "true". But "truth" itself is a rubbery, messy concept anyway! But whether its studying, crime solving or looking at historical events it seems above all one must be careful to have a rough overall picture, but allow enough "space" in between to come up with intuitive flashes, instead of just hammer and hammer and hammer away in a focused manner- like cramming for a test- or getting tunnel vision on your favorite suspect.Sometimes I imagine in my mind what we really, really know about Z, and lines extending from those facts into every possible prismatic probability. I suspect it would look like a maddening network like the World Wide Web. No WONDER there are so much serendipity in a "system" like this – with so many lines, how could there not be? With so many possibilities? So many ways to look at the very same thing?
Are you sure you should be in engineering? I could read your writings all day long. You have a philosophical side to you that’s quite intriguing.
Your statements above are so true about this case. It is by far the biggest reason this case has remained unsolved for the length of time it has. It is unfortunately human nature though. Discoveries are often made to be bigger than they really are because individual ideas are greatly valued more than the object they are considering. When things are eventually put together the sums are often considered to be equal to the whole. No. They are not. The whole is often greater.
The phenomena of human nature. The zodiac would certainly appear to be right. It can be a killer.
Soze
Wow! That is high praise!
I am actually working out some sort of interdisciplinary hybrid between engineering, psychology and criminology. I was planning on minoring in criminology but I may craft my own major- I really love to THINK but it has to be for a purpose- I want to catch bad guys with science, pure and simple.
I wish Taleb would take a look at the Zodiac case and give us his thoughts. Maybe I will write him. He is a fascinating mix of philosopher and statistician himself.
