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New odds of solving Z

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(@xcaliber)
Posts: 653
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

Tom from the other site delivered a blockbuster announcement about hair analysis and one of the Z letters.

I looked into it a bit, and my understanding is that currently labs may be successful up to 40 percent of the time in pulling interpretable DNA off rootless hair shafts.

(Not sure if ‘interpretable’ is a full profile, or if that matters, in terms of a promising upload to GED Match.)

Therefore my odds:

40% chance of hair testing success.

20% chance of stamp DNA-yield success.

50% chance of GED Match familial success

5% chance of CODIS success.

Whole shebang prediction: 45 percent chance of solving the case through DNA.

Anyone else?

 
Posted : June 11, 2018 7:25 pm
(@themist)
Posts: 162
Estimable Member
 

By the estimates you give, I make it a 33% chance.

 
Posted : June 12, 2018 2:35 am
(@xcaliber)
Posts: 653
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

You’re probably right – doubtful Vegas would give you better odds than that!

 
Posted : June 12, 2018 2:58 am
(@mike_r)
Posts: 838
Prominent Member
 

Hi,

I’ve been interested in that hair since 2002. Last summer I asked a very competent forensic scientist about mt-DNA and the hair is too short for today’s technology. They’d need a bigger sample. They could TRY to get DNA from it but they probably (and rightly) do not want to risk destroying the sample and getting no info from it.

This is the one instance where I think Z got his biggest break–the hair has no root bulb for nuclear DNA testing and is too short for mt-DNA testing. So it just sits there and taunts us.

I just now read his claims about anthropological research and his claim that a "full DNA profile" can now be obtained. My understanding is that a hair shaft only contains mitochondrial DNA. So I do not see how a "full DNA profile" in the sense of a full NUCLEAR DNA profile could be obtained from any hair; it is just mt-DNA so far as I know, although technology is always changing. So this bears further research on my part.

Mike

Mike Rodelli

Author, The Hunt for Zodiac; 3.9 stars on Amazon and
In The Shadow of Mt. Diablo: The Shocking True Identity of the Zodiac Killer, a second edition in print format. 4.3 Amazon stars and great Editorial reviews. Twitter:@mikerodelli

 
Posted : June 12, 2018 5:42 am
doranchak
(@doranchak)
Posts: 2614
Member Admin
 

I just now read his claims about anthropological research and his claim that a "full DNA profile" can now be obtained. My understanding is that a hair shaft only contains mitochondrial DNA. So I do not see how a "full DNA profile" in the sense of a full NUCLEAR DNA profile could be obtained from any hair; it is just mt-DNA so far as I know, although technology is always changing. So this bears further research on my part.

Here’s a paper that was published this year: "Successful nuclear DNA profiling of rootless hair shafts: a novel approach."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28993934

Historically, rootless hair shaft samples submitted to a forensic laboratory for DNA analysis are reserved for mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) analysis due to the presence of highly degraded as well as insufficient amounts of nuclear DNA. Although mtDNA has been very successful in obtaining results from rootless hair, this system has its limitations, namely, it is a lineage marker that cannot differentiate between maternally related genotypes. Given the high incidence of hairs as forensic evidence, there is a need for the use of a nuclear DNA test system capable of producing reliable results for hair shaft forensic evidence. This study reports the utilization of an enhanced DNA extraction methodology for hairs, in combination with a recently developed novel, nuclear DNA typing assay, InnoTyper® 21, to improve the success rate for obtaining informative results from highly compromised, degraded, and trace forensic samples such as rootless hair shafts. The InnoTyper 21 kit is a small amplicon retrotransposon marker typing system compatible with currently used capillary electrophoresis platforms. This system contains 20 Alu element markers, ranging in size from 60 to 125 bp, making the assay highly sensitive for extremely degraded forensic samples and thus enabling recovery of nuclear DNA profiles from samples that would otherwise require mtDNA sequencing. A subset of samples was also tested with the GlobalFiler kit with less success due to the larger amplicon sizes in comparison with InnoTyper 21. Results were variable but very promising, with approximately 40% of the total number of hairs tested producing interpretable nuclear DNA profiles with InnoTyper 21. These results demonstrate the ability of the utilized methodologies to produce nuclear DNA results with high statistical power from rootless hair shafts.

http://zodiackillerciphers.com

 
Posted : June 12, 2018 1:19 pm
(@mike_r)
Posts: 838
Prominent Member
 

Hi,

I learned that the technique being discussed is SNPS but the question is not what the new technique can do to shed light on genetic information contained in the hair. It is a question of how long the hair must be in order to have enough of it to successfully sample for the required DNA. You can have all the new ways of analyzing samples you want. But if a hair a few millimeters long is not large enough to isolate the DNA in the first place, the new analytical technique doesn’t mean a thing. I’m still looking into this issue.

Mike

Mike Rodelli

Author, The Hunt for Zodiac; 3.9 stars on Amazon and
In The Shadow of Mt. Diablo: The Shocking True Identity of the Zodiac Killer, a second edition in print format. 4.3 Amazon stars and great Editorial reviews. Twitter:@mikerodelli

 
Posted : June 12, 2018 3:14 pm
(@claypooles)
Posts: 353
Reputable Member
 

Now if a DNA sample could be obtained, what would be the next step?

 
Posted : June 12, 2018 11:20 pm
(@xcaliber)
Posts: 653
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

My guess is if it’s a sufficiently valid DNA profile that can be submitted to a database for comparison, they then try the Law Enforcement databases first. If nothing matches there, then you upload the profile to Gedmatch and search for relatives. If you find one, you enlist a genealogist to help narrow down the family tree.

 
Posted : June 13, 2018 12:04 am
(@claypooles)
Posts: 353
Reputable Member
 

Ok. I think this is just a matter of a couple of years before we finally know Zodiac’s true identity.

 
Posted : June 13, 2018 11:30 am
morf13
(@morf13)
Posts: 7527
Member Admin
 

The DNA being examined currently is not from a hair, it’s from samples on the glue section of Zodiac envelopes. With very limited quantities to work with, they have not been able to do much over the years. Now with new technology, they can do more with less. If the existing DNA is good enough to be entered into a database, it will be as the Golden State Killer’s was entered into a public database, once the right family is identified, they’ll trace the family tree until they find the right guy. Let’s just hope the DNA yields results good enough to enter to the database

There is more than one way to lose your life to a killer

http://www.zodiackillersite.com/
http://zodiackillersite.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/Morf13ZKS

 
Posted : June 14, 2018 4:00 am
(@claypooles)
Posts: 353
Reputable Member
 

Fingers crossed, this guy, dead or alive, has been a pain in the neck of justice for way, way too long :/

 
Posted : June 14, 2018 12:23 pm
Talon
(@talon)
Posts: 183
Estimable Member
 

DNA test results only yield conclusions if the particular sample tested matches with a known (named) identity.

 
Posted : June 15, 2018 2:03 am
(@xcaliber)
Posts: 653
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

50 percent chance of that.

 
Posted : June 15, 2018 2:35 am
Talon
(@talon)
Posts: 183
Estimable Member
 

As of 2014, the national database only had right at 13 million profiles. That’s a tiny fraction of all people (US) that have lived since say 1950.

 
Posted : June 15, 2018 3:19 am
(@xcaliber)
Posts: 653
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

Gedmatch.

 
Posted : June 15, 2018 5:33 am
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