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Occam's Razor & Ross?

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morf13
(@morf13)
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Occam’s Razor, It states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

Applying that to Ross(and the Z case in general):

1) Somebody that killed Paul Stine, and walked away from the cab(Zodiac) was witnessed by multiple people,and a resulting sketch was made

2)Letters & a desktop poem linked Zodiac to Riverside, and in particular, to the RCC Library as stated by a highly respected Document examiner in charge of the Zodiac case writing. These Riverside letters & writings closely follow habits, words, etc used by Zodiac.

Adding 1 & 2 above, seems to make Ross Sullivan the most likely Z suspect. How likely is it that a dead ringer for that sketch right down to the hairline(not somebody that has a general likeness of the sketch)can be linked to the RCC Library as Ross was, and is not the Zodiac? How many other people matched that sketch exactly, were in the RCC Library,and then later on, wound up in the SF Bay area? That would have to be a very small list of People.

Short of a verified link to the immediate area of Vallejo, and being generally taller then most descriptions of Zodiac, Ross fits the bill in many ways. We know he wrote a paper about how to write using different handwriting styles,something we know Z did. His timeline matches well with Zodiac’s activities, and when he was incapacitated for good in 1974 due to his illness, the Zodiac’s letters stopped.

How likely is it that there really is a better Suspect that can be connected to the RCC Library? After all these decades, there is NO OTHER SUSPECT that we can place there in that Library. Everybody has tried to connect their Suspect to the RCC Library, and nobody has been able to.

Occam’s Razor, if applied when using Suspects like Mr X, Gaikowski, Allen, etc against Ross, would certainly choose Ross over any other Suspect. We make ZERO Assumptions on points 1 & 2 above, he looks identical to the Z sketch, and he was in the RCC Library….that can not be argued.

We await that one special witness to come forward with details or information about Ross connecting him to Vallejo,Napa, or SF during 1968-1974 as opposed to only a Santa Cruz link. Until we get that smoking gun, Ross remains an enigma of a Suspect with so much potential, but not enough verifiable info to go any further

There is more than one way to lose your life to a killer

http://www.zodiackillersite.com/
http://zodiackillersite.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/Morf13ZKS

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 12:23 am
(@anonymous)
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"How many other people matched that sketch exactly."

Just one counter to this argument. I know you believe the sketch is likely accurate Morf and because it resembles Ross Sullivan well, you err on the side it is, that is a good argument in your favor. But if you believe the three teenagers and Donald Fouke were really accurate with the description of Zodiac, it is easy to suggest they were also accurate with the height of between 5’8" and 5’10". However, you choose to accept the facial description and dismiss the height, by explaining that they could have been mistaken with the height. But if you believe they could be mistaken with the height, they could equally be mistaken with the facial features. It is easy to accept the facts that fit your suspect and explain away the ones that don’t. This trait of selectivity is often used by people to promote their favorite suspects. This is not meant as a dig mind. :)

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 12:46 am
morf13
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"How many other people matched that sketch exactly."

Just one counter to this argument. I know you believe the sketch is likely accurate Morf and because it resembles Ross Sullivan well, you err on the side it is, that is a good argument in your favor. But if you believe the three teenagers and Donald Fouke were really accurate with the description of Zodiac, it is easy to suggest they were also accurate with the height of between 5’8" and 5’10". However, you choose to accept the facial description and dismiss the height, by explaining that they could have been mistaken with the height. But if you believe they could be mistaken with the height, they could equally be mistaken with the facial features. It is easy to accept the facts that fit your suspect and explain away the ones that don’t. This trait of selectivity is often used by people to promote their favorite suspects. This is not meant as a dig mind. :)

I have always thought this sketch reflected Zodiac’s real appearance, BEFORE I ever saw a photo of Ross.
I mentioned the height being off. But the height descriptions were given by who? Fouke seated in a car driving by, kids looking down from a window across the street, and Mike Mageau with a light in his face while being shot. What could they use for scale and for height judgement?More lines up with Ross than does not

There is more than one way to lose your life to a killer

http://www.zodiackillersite.com/
http://zodiackillersite.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/Morf13ZKS

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 12:54 am
Paul_Averly
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Even if you say well, there must have been other guys that used the RCC library in 1966 that could also look like the composite. You could pull a handful of people.

Now, subtract the ones who have no bay area connection.
subtract the ones who have no widows peak.
But most importantly, subtract the ones who have no record of severe mental illness.
After all that, you would still only get Ross.

I used to read the yellow book many years ago and say, all they need to do is find a guy from the RCC that matches the composite and had mental health issues. I never dreamed we would find a suspect so to the extreme of this as Ross.

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 1:09 am
(@anonymous)
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The RCC library connection is good and I respect Morf for all the effort he puts into researching his charge, but even as Morf has admitted in the past, we have no conclusive proof the murder of Cheri Jo Bates is a Zodiac crime. There are four confirmed attacks and five murders, not six. So if you base a suspect on an unconfirmed crime, you are building your case on weak foundations. If you can connect the Cheri Jo Bates case into the Zodiac murders, then your case is far more credible.

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 1:36 am
morf13
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The RCC library connection is good and I respect Morf for all the effort he puts into researching his charge, but even as Morf has admitted in the past, we have no conclusive proof the murder of Cheri Jo Bates is a Zodiac crime. There are four confirmed attacks and five murders, not six. So if you base a suspect on an unconfirmed crime, you are building your case on weak foundations. If you can connect the Cheri Jo Bates case into the Zodiac murders, then your case is far more credible.

Again, Ross could have been z without killing Cheri, or if Ross wasn’t z, whoever Z was didn’t necessarily kill Cheri

There is more than one way to lose your life to a killer

http://www.zodiackillersite.com/
http://zodiackillersite.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/Morf13ZKS

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 2:06 am
(@anonymous)
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Yes that’s true, the letters in the Cheri case are a good lead.

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 2:14 am
Paul_Averly
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The RCC library connection is good and I respect Morf for all the effort he puts into researching his charge, but even as Morf has admitted in the past, we have no conclusive proof the murder of Cheri Jo Bates is a Zodiac crime. There are four confirmed attacks and five murders, not six. So if you base a suspect on an unconfirmed crime, you are building your case on weak foundations. If you can connect the Cheri Jo Bates case into the Zodiac murders, then your case is far more credible.

This is where most people have trouble accepting Ross as a suspect, because the notion is that you have to accept CJB as a Zodiac victim. But you really don’t have to.

In the Zodiac case, there is evidence Zodiac was in Riverside. If you accept that Z could have written the Riverside letters, you accept Z was in Riverside at some point in 1966.
If Z was in Riverside and wrote those letters, it becomes even more likely he also wrote the desktop poem. If he wrote that poem, HE WAS IN THE LIBRARY at some point in 1966.

So it all comes down to that. You have the Riverside writings and the desktop. You have two choices, Z wrote them, or he did not.

If he did, Ross is the only Z look-alike that has a rock solid connection to that library.

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 2:18 am
(@snooter)
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Occams razor at this point would say ross is not the z..he can be placed at rcc in the time frame but thats it….there is no conclusive existing proof that can be used to tie in ross to z…again what is conclusive is ross can be placed at that library….ross is intresting and desrves his place on the poi list…until further evidence comes forth all we can do is speculate..

Personally the latest from riverside police has put a serious dent in ross as z…

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 3:08 am
Norse
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I’m not sure Occam’s Razor is applicable here. If we consider the multiple POI claims/cases as hypotheses, is the Ross claim really the one with the fewest assumptions (which explains the known facts/evidence)?

AFAIK we can’t presently explain his involvement with the canonical Z crimes at all.

Secondly, this is mainly about comparing known persons: In a pool of people who for various reasons have been presented as suspects, or POIs – who is the best candidate? While this is an interesting enough question, it has to be pointed out that there is no reason why we should assume that Z is any of the known suspects or POIs in the case.

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 3:26 am
morf13
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Personally the latest from riverside police has put a serious dent in ross as z…

Why? It’s been clearly proven that whoever z was could have only did the writing in the Bates case and not necessarily killed Cheri

There is more than one way to lose your life to a killer

http://www.zodiackillersite.com/
http://zodiackillersite.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/Morf13ZKS

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 4:59 am
morf13
(@morf13)
Posts: 7527
Member Admin
Topic starter
 

Occams razor at this point would say ross is not the z..he can be placed at rcc in the time frame but thats it….there is no conclusive existing proof that can be used to tie in ross to z…again what is conclusive is ross can be placed at that library….ross is intresting and desrves his place on the poi list…until further evidence comes forth all we can do is speculate..

Personally the latest from riverside police has put a serious dent in ross as z…

By the way, if Occam says that Ross is likely not z, then it’s even more highly unlikely that people like Ted K, Mr X, Allen and others are even less likely to be z

There is more than one way to lose your life to a killer

http://www.zodiackillersite.com/
http://zodiackillersite.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/Morf13ZKS

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 5:01 am
Titwillo
(@titwillo)
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I feel as though I don’t know where to stand regarding this.
On one hand, Occam’s Razor would tell us that assuming that Z is any of the POI’s this community has put forward would entail making too many assumptions as it is. Morf does make an interesting point regarding the implications of Ross not being Z. It would make those with even more tenuous connections seem much less likely. I did always have a problem with various POI’s (I won’t name any in particular as that isn’t particularly relevant) requiring too many assumptions in order to make a good case for their involvement. It never felt right to try to make a suspect fit into the paradigm of Z knowledge.
This leads me to the other hand. Out of the POI’s that I’ve seen mentioned (that had a relatively significant amount of research done in regards to their background), Ross Sullivan seems so be the one that continually tickles that part of your brain that thinks it may know something before you yourself may know. The line from the Z movie, "Just because you can’t prove it doesn’t mean it’s not true" is what comes to mind. It reminds me of how I feel when I see a highly publicized trial and have a gut feeling about their guilt but a Not Guilty verdict is handed down. People often say that the prosecution couldn’t prove their guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. I’m not sure a prosecutor could prove Ross Sullivan guilty beyond a reasonable doubt today. I feel it’s a dangerous thing to try to assume as truth something I can’t indeed prove. It’s why I’m an eternal fence-sitter for certain topics. However, I do feel that Ross does indeed have interesting connections to the case: the dead-on facial appearance, the mental illness, the (albeit somewhat controversial) Riverside connection, the handwriting essay. But, if we remember, Arthur Leigh Allen had a staggering number of interesting connections even though the handwriting and/or fingerprints ruled him out. I just still don’t feel safe in assuming Ross was Z unless we can in fact disprove it. I suppose my position is similar to when someone has a hypothesis. The point is to disprove the hypothesis, not prove it, and if it ends up not being unproven, then maybe there’s something there. Maybe my working hypothesis is, "Ross isn’t Z," and I’m just waiting for someone to prove myself or anyone else wrong.
Secretly, though, a part of me wants to be proven right. I’ll never forget the "What the actual hell?"-esque reaction I had upon reading about this guy.

"You can’t always write a chord ugly enough to say what you want to say, so sometimes you have to rely on a giraffe filled with whipped cream." – Frank Zappa

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 6:57 am
(@snooter)
Posts: 419
Reputable Member
 

Personally the latest from riverside police has put a serious dent in ross as z…

Why? It’s been clearly proven that whoever z was could have only did the writing in the Bates case and not necessarily killed Cheri

And that my friend is the intriguing aspect of ross…was there an emotional attachment ross felt to cheri…did her death lead him to seek out couples at first and ultimately did her death lead ross to conjur up the z persona…i dont have the answers..we all keep digging….

Well yea..x, tk, ala and all the rest have gaps to fill in..it could be z was so boring normal that nobody would have ever suspected his split personality..as norse has stated more than once..z may not be on any list at this time

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 7:22 am
Paul_Averly
(@paul_averly)
Posts: 857
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To me, Occam’s Razor all comes down to the desktop poem.
"the simplest explanation is usually the correct one"

So, if Z wrote it, then why would he be in that library?
It makes almost no sense for any of the other suspects. ALA was at a road race and stopped by to write that?? Why would Gyke be there? Or Mr X.
With Ross, it makes perfect sense.

If the same person who wrote that poem, was also the one who wrote the Z letters with Stine’s shirt, then the desktop poem writer looks just like Ross.

 
Posted : March 7, 2016 9:13 am
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