Welcome back, Ebbie..

vaccines…a good stuff as long as they work AND the people do receive them. We actually might doubt at least one of both to happen (with all Ebola patients).

ANOTHER outbreak in Eastern Congo. Now controlling the disease is even more difficult (as it currently expands in a war zone). So far, ‘only’ 300 cases. The virus breaks out SILENTLY. Approximately two weeks until the first symptoms do occur. Two weeks of meeting a few dozens if not hundreds of different people with a potential for new infection. Being optimistic, we may think about the following (theoretical) scenario:

1. Initial transfer of the Ebola virus, e.g. by eating chimp or human flesh (yes, there is cannibalism in Africa..few years ago a restaurant even sold roasted heads..I leave it to your own phantasie if they were from goats or not)
2. Initial outbreak – also the 20,000+ infected had once a body count of 300 – in West Africa
3. Massive outbreak including cases in the US, EU, Asia
4. CDC/WHO control at first failing
5. Urgent development of a vaccine
6. Control of the outbreak, also by closing borders of the region

The current outbreak is not under control. One single person travelling through the country could be enough to let the disease still continue in other areas of the world:

7. 300+ new cases in Eastern Congo (btw border area). So far, over 50% of the previous ‘hosts’ cannot be found. The outbreak will continue.

Also, it is questionable if the Ebola virus will not ‘mutate’ as virus sometimes actually do. We can only hope that they will find an adequate vaccine for those mutations, too. The next phases are even more theoretical and, to be honest, purely speculative:

8. Progress of the outbreak in Eastern Congo, expansion over borders (the current outbreak is near borders to neighbor countries), possibly with a meanwhile mutating virus.
9. Additional outbreaks occurring at places that have not even been located, yet.
10. Problems with controlling the outbreak in Eastern Congo and other areas: War, lack of medical and financial ressources (‘It’s already under control’), mutations.
11. Period of ‘underestimation and delay’, lack of awareness that Ebola still might be problematic.
12. Increase of infections, this time not only in Eastern Congo but various places of Africa. Later expansion of the disease via ships, airplanes etc. to other, travel-intense countries.
13. Steady but silent growth of the disease, this time without any chance to get the disease under control. Intense political debates and alternative recrimination.
14. Years after that, global sneezing and bleeding, resignation of authorities ("Sometime the disease will end by itself")
15. Zombies and Aliens will take over our world (no new information)

As you can see, the scenario is not the very best and has only one possible outcome: Zombies and Aliens will take over our planet.

Thus, be prepared.

QT

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/health/2 … c-orig.cnn

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/health/2 … -outbreak/

In the past, while watching Ebola without getting infected by it, we have seen how much we are actually flying around this planet:

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/publications/ebola/index.html

Ebola was indeed tricky, had a higher mortality than the Corona virus (~9-14%). But with lots of weapons and quarantining one to three countries, plus finding a vaccine, the Ebola virus’ effect was limited in the end. If not having found any vaccine, approximately 80% of the world’s population would already be dead by now. Statistically, of course. And still 3,444 cases open with Ebola by now.

Corona, however, might be even more tricky, although less mortal:

– longer incubation period (up to 14 days, even 27 days as an outlier might be possible)
– global spread of the disease, with no possibility to quarantine the areas (just think about the upcoming holiday season in Italy..)
– no vaccine found against the disease, yet
– multiple, repeated infections possible (lack of immunization)
– pretty much 80,000 infected people already

Well, this is actually enough to take the Corona disease seriously. In fact, it is already completely out of control. Let’s take the Milan guy as an example with nobody ever having known that the virus is already in that region even.

Currently, WHO is updating their death toll on a daily basis, adding approximately 500 to 1,000 cases every day. In China, meanwhile, people are gunned down on the street if not complying, with bodies put on the sidewalk in a 5 to 50m distance, in some areas. Both not very funny. Global risk level: High.

Based on the current infection growth rate (which is actually pretty low, somewhere above 1%), if no vaccine is found etc, there will be the first million infected people on Oct 4th, 2020. The first billion would be on June 3rd, 2023.

Thus, still lots of time to go shopping, compared to the Ebola outbreak. Interesting task, however, to limit the infections on a global basis.

QT

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease … n-reports/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir … on-period/

Welcome to the lab:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- … 2020-02-22

Growth rate doubled today to at least 2.424% (daily growth rate).

This equals a multiplication of 1 : 6,268 per annum or, based on currently 85,680 cases, a total of 537,058,454 as of 28th of February, 2021 (estimation).

UPDATE:

86,002 infections. Today’s daily growth rate is currently at 2.81%. This is equal to factor 2.3 per month or factor 24,647 per year. Thus, approximately 1,000,000 in three months or 2.12B infections over the next twelve months. Those healed (or dead) included, of course.

UPDATE II:

As of today, a 3.65% daily growth rate over yesterday’s WHO report #41. That growth rate itself increased about +30% in a few days only. This is an accelerating bio problem with not even a natural enemy and it is not said that not the virus but humans will survive on this planet on the long run.

The amount of infected people currently doubles in less than 20 days. Considering an incubation time of 5 days to up to 14 days or more, the virus actually doubles its hosts mostly ‘unseen’.

With +90,320 infections so far, there also is considerable risk of other mutations of the virus, e.g. leading to a higher mortality rate sooner or later (speculation). It is a fact, however, that with a growing amount of infected people, the medical staff is stressed more and more, possibly not being able to catch all hosts out there at all. Meanwhile patient zero is not even found, possibly even cured out or dead, yet. Over 60 countries involved, the virus is categorized as ‘High risk’ on a global basis, which still was not the case a few days ago.

No wonder, considering that Wuhan was one of only two locations in China, dealing with bio weapons on a level 4 security basis – including breeding of the Corona virus in that facility. Man-made bio weapon – working, so to say.

UPDATE III:

OUTSIDE China, a total of 12,028 over yesterdays’ 8,774 cases. This is an increase of 37.1% per DAY! Outside China (if their data is correct at all), the disease is completely out of control. While Italy tries to get control over the disease, with some success, South Korea and Iran is already completely out of control. Korea might get it done, does Iran, too?

Meanwhile the disease occurs simultaneously on various spots on our planet: Czech Republic, Armenia, Luxembourg, Iceland, Dominican Republic and Indonesia. All hundreds if not thousands, tenthousands of miles away from each other. This raises one question: IS IT SPREAD BY PURPOSE?

Indonesia: 270m people, 700 languages. Health care on a development countrie’s level. So far only two cases – but local transmission, meaning there is other people there walking around with COVID19..

Italy: Most of the counties are already ‘covered’ by the virus. With Milan as a hotspot, it may be assumed that it was imported via Milan Malpensa International Airport. More than 500 flights from there all over the world. Daily.

QT

COVID-19

A total of 111,589 cases (currently). A total of 108 territories ‘infected’. The daily growth rate – without China, they seem to have stopped publishing – has lowered a bit to 24.8%. But this is still bad enough:

On a 90-day basis, this equals to 1,248^90, thus 444,157,047.9 times more people infected (outside China).

Out of meanwhile 30,850 cases outside China, under the given circumstances, will become a total of potentially 13,702,244,928,132 people infected. In 90 days only. And yes, you are right, this is more than people are actually living on our planet.

Thus, statistically, everybody of us will be infected in less than 90 days.

QT

this site gives you an idea as to why the virus can spread globally so quickly. this is a real time site.
so many planes. its insane.
https://www.flightradar24.com/

this site gives you an idea as to why the virus can spread globally so quickly. this is a real time site.
so many planes. its insane.
https://www.flightradar24.com/

True…alone from Milan Malpensa (Lombardy, Italy) an average of 550 flights – per day. Germany infections 10x more in about one week only (from 150 to 1,152 cases). Sure that thousands of cases are harder to ‘control’ than only three, especially if locally transmitted. First case in the US: January 20, 2020. Now the count is at 566.

QT

COVID-19

A total of 111,589 cases (currently). A total of 108 territories ‘infected’. The daily growth rate – without China, they seem to have stopped publishing – has lowered a bit to 24.8%. But this is still bad enough:

On a 90-day basis, this equals to 1,248^90, thus 444,157,047.9 times more people infected (outside China).

Out of meanwhile 30,850 cases outside China, under the given circumstances, will become a total of potentially 13,702,244,928,132 people infected. In 90 days only. And yes, you are right, this is more than people are actually living on our planet.

Thus, statistically, everybody of us will be infected in less than 90 days.

QT

That’s not how that works. You can’t assume the growth rate will be constant. Otherwise, all of the other diseases that initially had high growth rates would have resulted in the same 100% infection.

Simple example: Bird flu cases reported per year, 2003 to 2019:

2003: 4
2004: 46
2005: 98
2006: 115
2007: 88
2008: 44
2009: 73
2010: 48
2011: 62
2012: 32
2013: 39
2014: 52
2015: 145
2016: 10
2017: 4
2018: 0
2019: 1

from 2004 to 2005 the cases doubled, but petered out afterwards. Then there was an alarming spike in 2015.
But you can’t just say in 2005 that "we’ll have double the infections from here on out."

Well, I never said ‘We’ll have double the infections from here on out.‘. Nevertheless, you are right. But in case of a further outbreak, what does it matter if the disease will double in e.g. 90 or 180 days?

True, however, that it makes a difference of ‘all people infected ever‘ compared to ‘currently infected and outside quarantaine‘. Latter data is hard to get. Also, there are unknown cases, which are not yet in the statistic.

Meanwhile, WHO has changed their website to ‘Emergency’ status.

Two weeks ago, Italy had ~450 cases – currently it’s 9,172. Iran similar. And, to be honest, I do not see any significant slowdown in the charts:

But in fact, I made a calculation ‘mistake’ by comparing current numbers with WHO report numbers. This somewhat involved cases of the present day, which is not fully justified.

Real, however, if believing the official WHO situation reports, is a 13.8% daily growth rate (yesterday) compared to 12.5% daily growth rate (today). Thus, some significant improvement over yesterday can be noted (all outside China; situation reports #49, #50). With 14.8% the day before yesterday (#48), there seems to be ‘hope’.

To lower this rate is the main target to stop the outbreak. But with 12.5% per day, the disease (outside China) will still double – in six days only. So I’d join a bet that this will happen, sooner or later.

My personal ‘fear’ is for some reasons:

– Compared to Ebola, this outbreak is a global one. Some countries will manage the disease, some will not. Reimported infections have already been reported from China.

– No vaccine found yet, repeated/multiple infections are possible (no natural immunization)

– Large number of unreported cases due to longer incubation time (than Ebola)

Last but not least, at some point the capacities of health care professionals might be limited. This also being the reason why Iran is still ‘exploding’ but South Korea somewhat had become able to slow down their local outbreak. If the overall amount of infected people cannot be controlled anymore (e.g. daily growth rate rising, due to previously non-reported cases; countries not getting capable of the situation- India?; etc.) it might get out of control.

If all health care professionals (in each country…) however manage to slow down their daily growth to ‘zero’ over the next days, the disease ‘gets under control’. Imagine 4,500 new cases per day, all the people they had met in the 5-14 days of their incubation time.

WIth everybody under quarantaine – like 60.48m Italians currently – this might still be possible..but first, I guess, we will see a double in infections.

Italy update: 10,149.

QT

UPDATE I:

Slightly ‘graphic’:

Italy, Cremona, intensive care (9% of all infected require intensive care):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vm97Binm-1c

In Italy, pensioned health care professionals are ‘called back’, even students of higher semesters are called to support treatment of Corona patients.

Germany had +38%.

UPDATE II:

Daily growth rate already 15.8% over yesterday.

QT

Here’s the current chart of cases from the Johns Hopkins app:

Top line is China. Middle is total recovered. Bottom line is all other non-China cases combined.

Looks like China cases are flattening out. Growth is slowing. Hopefully it’s not just because of under-reporting. And hopefully the bottom line will start doing that, too.

I sincerely mean this thank you smart kids for scratching Your heads over the numbers and data and posting .

it’s a cold. the mortality rate appears higher than reality because most countries aren’t testing mild/symptom-free cases so only those who have advanced to needing hospital care are being counted. once testing is done comprehensively those numbers will go down. it’s like pulling data about the dangers of driving in cars but only counting cars that have been in an accident.

the main issue right now is that all of the chicken little sky is falling stuff is causing stores to run out of basic supplies like children’s tylenol and ibuprofen which sucks for people who have a sick kid (sick with anything that requires those medicines), and toilet paper and bottled water. some hospitals are being overwhelmed by well-meaning people who think having a cold means an emergency room visit.

if there is one silver lining in this current insanity it’s that the panic around coronavirus is closer to the seriousness we all should be taking during flu season (10,000 dead in US this flu season alone, but that’s not newsworthy i guess). wash hands, stay home if you’re sick.

I guess when you write ‘cold’ you actually mean a ‘flu’? As ‘cold’ has not very much in common with a corona virus?

In 1918, an influenza pandemic was estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected – with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

Good to know there is nothing to worry about.

QT
(washing his hands)

I guess when you write ‘cold’ you actually mean a ‘flu’? As ‘cold’ has not very much in common with a corona virus?

In 1918, an influenza pandemic was estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected – with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

Good to know there is nothing to worry about.

QT
(washing his hands)

between 300,000 and 600,000 people die per year of the flu. should i look back at your posting history to see how you’ve reacted to those numbers each flu season or should i take it for granted that you’re part of the current panic because everyone else is? it’s great that people are taking infecting others seriously and taking proper precautions. it sucks that common sense isn’t prevailing against dodgy math that hopes to prove that we’re all doomed. currently stores are out of basic supplies and hospitals are overrun because of what this could become, not what it is. that’s sad because that type of panic for panic’s sake is likely to cause more harm than this virus. i’m happy to continue the conversation if you have something productive to add, but if i’m going to get more math and language arts lessons i’ll pass.