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Lake Berryessa Theories

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Marshall
(@marshall)
Posts: 643
Honorable Member
 

There’s no evidence that he killed anyone in August, though. He made a lot of wild claims in his letters.

Exactly. Nobody in the media, or anywhere, associated Z with an August kill. Stabber Z, at LB, did not.

But, real or not, Shooter/letter writer Z did.

 
Posted : May 3, 2021 6:58 am
(@coffee-time)
Posts: 624
Honorable Member
 

You are correct, as on the previous post Richard G point out out that it was shown in the Vallejo Times Herald so I freely hold my hands up on that one I was wrong. On the other hand though if it copied it could only have been from this paper thus meaning that the attacker would have had access to that paper.

The clipping on this site appears beneath an article from the Vallejo News Chronicle. Both papers were published by Gibson and the clipping doesn’t have "Times-Herald" scrawled on it. Do we know for 100% fact it was published in the Herald?

 
Posted : May 3, 2021 8:35 am
Richard Grinell
(@richard-grinell)
Posts: 717
Prominent Member
Topic starter
 

The person who wrote on the car door is effectively trying to show he is the murderer responsible for the attacks previously attributed to him, hence writes the dates of Lake Herman Road, Blue Rock Springs, along with the current attack. He hasn’t yet been comprehensively linked to the August attack on Snoozy and Furlong, which is probably why he doesn’t list it on the car door. He is listing attacks known to him and the police to suggest he is the same person responsible for the earlier crimes. There is little point listing a crime that hasn’t been attributed to him as proof. In the aftermath of Berryessa it was widely pondered whether he may be responsible for the two murders in August, which is why he added it to the Dripping Pen card.

https://www.zodiacciphers.com/

“I simply cannot accept that there are, on every story, two equal and logical sides to an argument.” Edward R. Murrow.

 
Posted : May 3, 2021 2:07 pm
ConcernedCitizen
(@concernedcitizen)
Posts: 95
Trusted Member
 

The person who wrote on the car door is effectively trying to show he is the murderer responsible for the attacks previously attributed to him, hence writes the dates of Lake Herman Road, Blue Rock Springs, along with the current attack. He hasn’t yet been comprehensively linked to the August attack on Snoozy and Furlong, which is probably why he doesn’t list it on the car door. He is listing attacks known to him and the police to suggest he is the same person responsible for the earlier crimes. There is little point listing a crime that hasn’t been attributed to him as proof. In the aftermath of Berryessa it was widely pondered whether he may be responsible for the two murders in August, which is why he added it to the Dripping Pen card.

"Probably" comes up a lot, doesn’t it?

There’s also little point in writing a letter claiming responsibility for a murder wherein it was publicly known police had a suspect in custody already…but he did that, too…
It’s funny how often, and how quickly, people double down on the "Zodiac was a liar" angle, yet are only too happy to embrace the "deceptive honesty" of his allusions to murders they are eager to attribute to him…too many people want to eat their cake and have it, too…

You have no idea why Zodiac added "Aug" to the Dripping Pen card…perhaps he was alluding to Snoozy and Furlong, perhaps he was alluding to any number of the many atrocities that occurred in California in August…but stating it as fact as to his intent is quite telling.

So many people wanting to uncover Zodiac’s personality traits in furtherance of his identity…but in trying, betraying their own…

 
Posted : May 3, 2021 3:17 pm
Richard Grinell
(@richard-grinell)
Posts: 717
Prominent Member
Topic starter
 

Yes, "probably", "possibly" and "may" do come up a lot, because that is the honest approach when assessing the Zodiac Killer and his crimes in circumstances where no definitive proof can be offered. That is the idea behind forums where people speculate and offer their opinion.

There is nuance, in that Zodiac can be proven to be a liar when claiming the Snoozy/Furlong murders, yet also insinuate himself as the murderer of Donna Lass via the Pines card, where no evidence for such a claim exists. I don’t argue that "Aug" was the sole reason for his claiming of the Snoozy/Furlong murders, which is why I looked at the August 6th newspaper, the reasoning behind "by knife" on the car door, the December 19th 1969 phone call, the 4-TEEN in the Halloween card, the connection between the Pines card and Monticello card, the reasoning behind "Monticello" on the card, the 148 character cipher and letter connection to Karl Francis Werner, Snoozy, Furlong and Bilek. The connection between the Monticello card, 148 character cipher and Albany letter. So you are correct, I don’t base my conclusions on just "Aug", I endeavour to link multiple communications to validate or reason an argument.

I thought this was the idea behind a forum in exchanging ideas, so maybe you can explain where I have betrayed this principle.

https://www.zodiacciphers.com/

“I simply cannot accept that there are, on every story, two equal and logical sides to an argument.” Edward R. Murrow.

 
Posted : May 3, 2021 3:52 pm
(@shawn)
Posts: 139
Estimable Member
 

Yes, "probably", "possibly" and "may" do come up a lot, because that is the honest approach when assessing the Zodiac Killer and his crimes in circumstances where no definitive proof can be offered. That is the idea behind forums where people speculate and offer their opinion.

There were many years of "probably", "possibly" and "may" regarding the 340 on this forum. The 340 was solved because of years of speculation on the Zodiac Killer Site. Corey Starliper was the first? to use "Gas Chamber" in a solution that turned out to be incorrect. I don’t know if Dave Oranchak would have included "Gas Chamber" in his list of words zodiac may have used if he would not have reviewed Corey solution about a decade ago. Gas Chamber was two of the key words to solving the 340.

 
Posted : May 3, 2021 8:35 pm
thedude
(@thedude)
Posts: 249
Reputable Member
 

Yes, "probably", "possibly" and "may" do come up a lot, because that is the honest approach when assessing the Zodiac Killer and his crimes in circumstances where no definitive proof can be offered. That is the idea behind forums where people speculate and offer their opinion.

There were many years of "probably", "possibly" and "may" regarding the 340 on this forum. The 340 was solved because of years of speculation on the Zodiac Killer Site. Corey Starliper was the first? to use "Gas Chamber" in a solution that turned out to be incorrect. I don’t know if Dave Oranchak would have included "Gas Chamber" in his list of words zodiac may have used if he would not have reviewed Corey solution about a decade ago. Gas Chamber was two of the key words to solving the 340.

This post is interesting.
So Shawn I’m curious since you brought it up, how much credit should Corey get? I like numbers so a percentage please. Less than 1%? 1%? 5%? 15%? 20%? More?

 
Posted : May 3, 2021 10:15 pm
(@tlaz444)
Posts: 13
Active Member
 

Yes, "probably", "possibly" and "may" do come up a lot, because that is the honest approach when assessing the Zodiac Killer and his crimes in circumstances where no definitive proof can be offered. That is the idea behind forums where people speculate and offer their opinion.

There were many years of "probably", "possibly" and "may" regarding the 340 on this forum. The 340 was solved because of years of speculation on the Zodiac Killer Site. Corey Starliper was the first? to use "Gas Chamber" in a solution that turned out to be incorrect. I don’t know if Dave Oranchak would have included "Gas Chamber" in his list of words zodiac may have used if he would not have reviewed Corey solution about a decade ago. Gas Chamber was two of the key words to solving the 340.

This post is interesting.
So Shawn I’m curious since you brought it up, how much credit should Corey get? I like numbers so a percentage please. Less than 1%? 1%? 5%? 15%? 20%? More?

~0%, it’s more the fact that a sentence structure was found in the message amidst the nonsense rather than the actual meaning itself. "TRYING TO CATCH ME" was also found in the message along with "GAS CHAMBER".

 
Posted : May 3, 2021 11:04 pm
(@vegas-lawyer)
Posts: 323
Reputable Member
 

I have yet to hear a very good reason why Zodiac should have been expected to address Berryessa in his letters. He only mentioned murders to prove he did them. It seems to me that doubts about Berryessa being a Zodiac crime are of recent vintage. If Napa S.O. had no doubts that it was a Zodiac crime, why should he have mentioned it? His later letters had to do with the Stine murder and bus bombs. He never mentioned his other crimes after he established that he did them. So, I don’t know why lack of mention in the letters is proof that Berryessa is not a Zodiac crime.

Just as a thought experiment, what could Zodiac have said about Berryessa that wouldn’t be met with the familiar refrain of "well, that was already in the newspapers?" Hartnell basically told all the details. What could Zodiac have added?

If you believe Bates was a Zodiac crime (I do not), then Berryessa would appear to evidence an evolution of a killer using a knife. Bates was a small girl who put up a big fight. Zodiac apparently learned that to effectively kill victims with a knife, he must subdue and incapacitate them first, which is exactly what happened at Berryessa. And both crimes involve a ruse: an apparent good Samaritan offering help and the robbery angle. I see similarities. I tend to agree with Michael Kelleher that Zodiac likely knew of the Bates crime and maybe even knew the perpetrator, but didn’t commit the crime. Either way, whether he committed the Bates murder or merely drew inspiration from it, Zodiac appears to have learned from it and incorporated his lessons into the Berryessa attack.

 
Posted : May 3, 2021 11:34 pm
mrsean
(@mrsean)
Posts: 80
Estimable Member
 

Yes, "probably", "possibly" and "may" do come up a lot, because that is the honest approach when assessing the Zodiac Killer and his crimes in circumstances where no definitive proof can be offered. That is the idea behind forums where people speculate and offer their opinion.

There were many years of "probably", "possibly" and "may" regarding the 340 on this forum. The 340 was solved because of years of speculation on the Zodiac Killer Site. Corey Starliper was the first? to use "Gas Chamber" in a solution that turned out to be incorrect. I don’t know if Dave Oranchak would have included "Gas Chamber" in his list of words zodiac may have used if he would not have reviewed Corey solution about a decade ago. Gas Chamber was two of the key words to solving the 340.

This post is interesting.
So Shawn I’m curious since you brought it up, how much credit should Corey get? I like numbers so a percentage please. Less than 1%? 1%? 5%? 15%? 20%? More?

That’s an interesting question. The answer surely comes down to how Corey came up with the words, "Gas" and "Chamber". What key did he apply (substitution, transposition) – how many steps were taken to reveal these words? I’m not familiar with Corey’s workings, but for some qualified insight, I’d recommend watching David Oranchak’s "Let’s Crack Zodiac" YouTube series, especially the Episode linked below. But watch them all, even the episodes made prior to the 340 being solved.

https://youtu.be/UfrFSrI05hk

"Pure mathematics is, in its way, the poetry of logical ideas." Albert Einstein

 
Posted : May 4, 2021 1:17 am
Marshall
(@marshall)
Posts: 643
Honorable Member
 

If you believe Bates was a Zodiac crime (I do not), then Berryessa would appear to evidence an evolution of a killer using a knife. Bates was a small girl who put up a big fight. Zodiac apparently learned that to effectively kill victims with a knife, he must subdue and incapacitate them first, which is exactly what happened at Berryessa. And both crimes involve a ruse: an apparent good Samaritan offering help and the robbery angle. I see similarities. I tend to agree with Michael Kelleher that Zodiac likely knew of the Bates crime and maybe even knew the perpetrator, but didn’t commit the crime. Either way, whether he committed the Bates murder or merely drew inspiration from it, Zodiac appears to have learned from it and incorporated his lessons into the Berryessa attack.

1. If you are one person who wants to stab to death 2 people, OF COURSE you have to incapacitate them. That’s common sense. Otherwise, as you attack one, the other will either fight you or escape. Saying he learned that from the Bates crime is quite a stretch. It’s like saying he learned to wear shoes from the Bates crime because shoes are easier to walk/run in than bare feet.
2. If you are pretending to be a robber and want to calm and subdue your victims, is it your best move to wear a big black hood with the symbol of a mass murderer on it? A costume that makes no sense when combined with the story of being an escaped prisoner on the run (a story in which you also claim to have killed someone?)
3, If you’re going back to the "Zodiac evolution" idea, what elements of the LB attack were incorporated in the next (PH) attack? Above, in a previous post, I have detailed what I think is a very reasonable, logical, and consistent evolution from LHR to LB to PH. Please explain how LB fits in with those crimes in terms of "evolution."

I claim LB is a complete outlier. You claim above LB was part of an evolutionary process (while also saying you don’t think he killed Bates.) Please expand on how LB fits into Z’s evolutionary process.

 
Posted : May 4, 2021 2:09 am
(@vegas-lawyer)
Posts: 323
Reputable Member
 

Trying to compare LB to PH is like trying to compare a grappling match to a boxing match. The two murders are too different to compare. You might be able to draw a comparison between two crimes involving knives.

A trained knife wielder can kill two unarmed persons with a knife. Zodiac could not. It’s hard to stab two people to death. It’s remarkably easy to slash two people to pieces when you know where and how to cut.

 
Posted : May 4, 2021 2:51 am
Marshall
(@marshall)
Posts: 643
Honorable Member
 

Trying to compare LB to PH is like trying to compare a grappling match to a boxing match. The two murders are too different to compare. You might be able to draw a comparison between two crimes involving knives.

A trained knife wielder can kill two unarmed persons with a knife. Zodiac could not. It’s hard to stab two people to death. It’s remarkably easy to slash two people to pieces when you know where and how to cut.

Are we agreeing that, relative to the shootings, LB is a complete outlier?

We don’t see a costume at PH, or writing on the cab, or letters bragging about LB. Day vs. night, in the open vs. completely contained, chatty vs. relatively silent (per Mageau,) lengthy process vs. quick and perfunctory, and so on.

An evolutionary process would’ve at least taught him to be sure of the kill, after BRS. Shooter Z made no doubt about it at PH. LB Stabber leaves both victims alive for 2 days and 50+ years.

 
Posted : May 4, 2021 3:00 am
(@vegas-lawyer)
Posts: 323
Reputable Member
 

Are we agreeing that, relative to the shootings, LB is a complete outlier?

We don’t see a costume at PH, or writing on the cab, or letters bragging about LB. Day vs. night, in the open vs. completely contained, chatty vs. relatively silent (per Mageau,) lengthy process vs. quick and perfunctory, and so on.

An evolutionary process would’ve at least taught him to be sure of the kill, after BRS. Shooter Z made no doubt about it at PH. LB Stabber leaves both victims alive for 2 days and 50+ years.

LB is an outlier in the sense that it is a knife attack in a secluded location. I don’t think Zodiac left Mageau alive at BRS on purpose. I think he ran out of ammo.

The lack of the costume at PH is irrelevant, at it wouldn’t fit the crime.

Zodiac didn’t just brag about his crimes. He wrote about them to establish that he did them. The only two instances of him quickly writing about his crimes were BRS and PH. PH is also unique in that it looked like a common cab robbery, of which there were quite a few in SF. You make much hay about Zodiac writing about his crimes, but you also ignore why he did it. At LB, I have yet to find one article or news report where the media or LE doubted that LB was a Zodiac attack. Had Hal Snook or some other LE official went on the news to say LB was a copycat crime, perhaps we would have gotten the letter that you think Zodiac should have sent.

 
Posted : May 4, 2021 3:25 am
Marshall
(@marshall)
Posts: 643
Honorable Member
 

LB is an outlier in the sense that it is a knife attack in a secluded location. I don’t think Zodiac left Mageau alive at BRS on purpose. I think he ran out of ammo.

Zodiac emptied his clip, went back and re-loaded, returned to shoot some more, but I don’t believe he emptied his clip a second time. Meaning, he didn’t run out of bullets. What he did is made the mistake of assuming he had done enough damage to both victims that they were both dead.

Shooter Z didn’t make that mistake again. LB Stabber left both victims alive. If anything, LB is a regression; lessons NOT learned from previous mistakes.

 
Posted : May 4, 2021 3:35 am
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