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Victim name patterns

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doranchak
(@doranchak)
Posts: 2614
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Topic starter
 

A post on Tom’s forum sent me down a little rabbit hole concerning patterns in the victim names:

http://www.zodiackillerciphers.com/?p=408

http://zodiackillerciphers.com

 
Posted : August 10, 2013 5:17 pm
morf13
(@morf13)
Posts: 7527
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Interesting!

Like in the Joseph Naso case, seems unlikley that so many of his victims would have matching first & last name initials, more than coincidence,no?

There is more than one way to lose your life to a killer

http://www.zodiackillersite.com/
http://zodiackillersite.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/Morf13ZKS

 
Posted : August 10, 2013 5:56 pm
doranchak
(@doranchak)
Posts: 2614
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Topic starter
 

The Naso victims seem to follow a much stronger pattern.

The names are: Roxene Rogasch, Carmen Colon, Pamela Parsons, and Tracey Tafoya.

In English, if you picked two letters at random, the probability that they are both the same is about 0.065.

So:

The odds of selecting one person whose first and last names start with the same letter: 0.065 (about 1 in 15)
The odds of selecting two people whose first and last names start with the same letter: 0.065^2 = 0.004225 (about 1 in 240)
The odds of selecting three people whose first and last names start with the same letter: 0.065^3 = 0.000274625 (about 1 in 3,600)
The odds of selecting four people whose first and last names start with the same letter: 0.065^4 = 0.000017850625 (about 1 in 56,000)

If you toss in the location names (i.e., Carmen Colon found near Churchville), the probability goes down a lot.

In English, if you picked three letters at random, the probability that they are all the same is about 0.00535.

So:

The odds of selecting one person whose first and last names and location start with the same letter: 0.00535 (about 1 in 190)
The odds of selecting two people whose first and last names and location start with the same letter: 0.00535^2 = 0.0000286225 (about 1 in 35,000)
The odds of selecting three people whose first and last names and location start with the same letter: 0.00535^3 = 0.000000153130375 (about 1 in 6,500,000)
The odds of selecting four people whose first and last names and location start with the same letter: 0.00535^4 = 0.00000000081924750625 (about 1 in 1,200,000,000)

The probabilities go up if there are other possible victims who don’t fit the pattern. For example, if there are four people whose first and last names and location start with the same letter, and four who don’t fit the pattern, then the probability becomes: 0.0000000561299 (about 1 in 18,000,000). Still pretty low.

http://zodiackillerciphers.com

 
Posted : August 10, 2013 7:29 pm
 _pi
(@_pi)
Posts: 113
Estimable Member
 

Very nice and clean demonstration!

http://www.zodiackillerciphers.com/?p=408

Your post’s page ID is 408. What are the odds of that??? ;)

 
Posted : August 10, 2013 8:36 pm
(@anonymous)
Posts: 1772
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Jack the Ripper
Mary Ann Nicholls
Annie Chapman
Elizabeth STride
Catherine EDdows
Mary Jane Kelly
2/5

 
Posted : August 10, 2013 9:34 pm
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