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The "Hoax" Theory. Problems.

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smithy
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OK, so it could have said "43 problems", but I’ll stick with two. The big two.

The theory that "The Zodiac Killer didn’t exist and that the letters are a hoax" concludes that:

1) The canonical crimes were committed by different individuals (or groups of them) and were unrelated. The theory suggests that this is confirmed by the different MO’s, weapon types and physical descriptions rendered of the attacker(s).
It further concludes that:

2) The crimes are only connected by the letters, which were written by an individual who had access to the requisite police information somehow (when and if it wasn’t already in the public domain*) – and that this individual was also able to deface the door on the Kharman Ghia at Lake Berryessa, and obtain the shirt material (probably from the evidence room at SFCO), without necessarily having been anywhere near the Stine crime scene.

It has also been suggested that Detective Hal Snook (who has handwriting which looks like that of "The Zodiac" – but it’s not conclusive, or at least "not proven") – that he had the requisite access to the police material, and was on-site at Lake Berryessa.
He’s Johnny-On-The-Spot in the game of "Clue", if you will.
Why? Because his handwriting looks good, he could have read ALL the traffic, he could have written on that door, he could have taken that shirt tail.
If those things are coincidences then they are the K2 of all coincidences. Pretty big.

Problems with this:

1) Motive. What’s the motive for stringing together a set of crimes, with letters? Just for the thrill? Because you don’t like coppers? It’s been done, over here in the UK, in high-profile cases with just this kind of motive. For instance:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wearside_Jack

– But if the perpetrator is Hal Snook, can we really assign him THAT motive? Surely, after the heinous crime at Berryessa our friend and good-guy Hal Snook would have stopped his little letter campaign, right? Knowing that he was interfering with the course of justice? That subsequently suspects were being rejected on the basis of their handwriting alone?
Problem.
If it was Hal Snook, he’d have had to have been very twisted. For this reason, Hal doesn’t look like a fit, handwriting or not.

2) Coincidence. You’re Hal Snook and you encounter crime on a regular basis, so eventually you’ll encounter one where you can interfere with the physical evidence and put some of your handwriting on it. (This too has happened before, right? Not an original idea…..)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goulston_Street_graffito

– But what are the chances that the crime will also include some lunatic dude dressed in a hood with a Zodiac symbol on it? Huh?
Problem.
If this is coincidence, it’s a huge coincidence. One that defies description and belief. Everest itself, in the size of sizable coincidences. If this isn’t a coincidence then Hal Snook had to have been an accessory to murder at Berryessa, or pulled on a hood on himself. Which sounds ludicrous.

These are the two main problems with the "hoax" theory as I currently see it, then, and even if you can accept, as an abstract concept:
1) The letters were created by a hoaxer and
2) The crimes weren’t connected, otherwise
There seems to be no view of events which allows these two statements to be true, which excludes the input of someone just LIKE Hal Snook, which encompasses Berryessa but excludes Hal Snook, and which ascribes a believable motive.

Problem.
What’s the solution please?

* Like RIverside.

 
Posted : June 25, 2013 6:24 pm
traveller1st
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No solution I’m afraid but just to add. You describe a possible series of events at Berryessa whereby Hal would have to be considered as an accomplice if not worse. Well also, apart from the obvious crimes of obstructing justice and interfering with a police investigation he would also be guilty of making terrorist threats with that whole bomb deal-e-o.


I don’t know Chief, he’s very smart or very dumb.

 
Posted : June 25, 2013 10:30 pm
morf13
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‘I’ve got 43 problems but a hoax ain’t one’…isn’t that a Jay Z song??? :lol:

There is more than one way to lose your life to a killer

http://www.zodiackillersite.com/
http://zodiackillersite.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/Morf13ZKS

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 4:23 pm
BuckwheatFlowers
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The LB thing is definitely a problem as far as I can tell. I do, however, applaud Mr. Horan’s efforts and encourage him to continue. Plus, I find him slightly entertaining.

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 5:35 pm
morf13
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His hoax theory is full of lots of holes. And who is his suspect(s)? He seems to keep shifting….first he thought it was the egyptian guy,then it was Hal Snook, lots and lots of holes, and in my opinion, completely a waste of time. Nothing wrong with having a theory,and being wrong, but when you choose to attack, belittle, and put down researchers and so many people that have helped research the case over the years, you will not gain many fans

There is more than one way to lose your life to a killer

http://www.zodiackillersite.com/
http://zodiackillersite.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/Morf13ZKS

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 5:48 pm
smithy
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His hoax theory is full of lots of holes. And who is his suspect(s)? He seems to keep shifting….first he thought it was the egyptian guy,then it was Hal Snook, lots and lots of holes, and in my opinion, completely a waste of time. Nothing wrong with having a theory,and being wrong, but when you choose to attack, belittle, and put down researchers and so many people that have helped research the case over the years, you will not gain many fans

Morf, it’s your site and it’s your opinion that counts, but it might be nice to see if we can seperate the theory from it’s proponent for once, and discuss the former, don’t you think?
Not that your joke about the song wasn’t funny, you understand, since it was. ;)

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 6:01 pm
morf13
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Okay,let’s separate the theory from the theorist for a second.

*Theorist states that there was no zodiac killer,and only a Z hoax letter writer

*Lake Berryessa murder scene, writing found on car door. This writing matches confirmed Zodiac letter writing. The attacker wore a hood with zodiac crosshair symbol

* Paul Stine murder- letter is sent in containing bloody short piece, and writing is confirmed to be Zodiac’s, which matches the Lake Berryessa car door.

Sorry,but I have too much common sense to think this hoax is plausible. We have multiple crime scenes, in multiple jurisdictions, with physical evidence & writing linking these cases to each other.

To believe this theory, you have to think that the letter hoaxer had access to both Paul Stine’s shirt, and to Hartnell’s door. If both of these crimes were in one jurisdition, then maybe you could argue that one investigator could have taken evidence and used it for the hoax. But there’s simply no real way that one investigator could have been at the Berryessa crime scene in time to write the note on the door , and also get his hands on Stine’s shirt to mail it as fast as he did.

If a Berryessa investigator was the hoaxer, he would be awfully lucky to have the attacker in the case at Berryessa wearing a crosshair logo on his hood, unless he is accusing an investigator of being the attacker,and that’s simply terrible and low if thats the case.

Bottom line for me, this hoax is easy to disprove,and really doesn’t merit any discussion from me. The reason I continue to address it, is because people new to the case might think the theory could be real,or possible,but if we look at the facts,it simply isnt. The person that wrote the Z letters,was in fact the same person that was at Berryessa, and attacked a couple there, and wrote on thedoor there. The person that wrote the Stine letter, and mailed it, included a piece of Stine’s shirt. He proved he was the killer and that he was the letter writer. If you want to say that maybe Z didnt kill Faraday & Jensen, that’s one you might be able to argue since he didnt provide any solid evidnce linking himself to their case, nor did he call immediately after the attack.

There is more than one way to lose your life to a killer

http://www.zodiackillersite.com/
http://zodiackillersite.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/Morf13ZKS

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 7:21 pm
traveller1st
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The LB thing is definitely a problem as far as I can tell. I do, however, applaud Mr. Horan’s efforts and encourage him to continue. Plus, I find him slightly entertaining.

Yup it’s a major problem.

Probably accidentally, and I say probably because honestly, who knows what his intentions were but it’s almost like his actions on that day were meant to stave off this kind suggestion. It’s the only crime scene (so far attributed to him) that he deliberately left evidence at although you could say the shell casings in the other crimes were not removed to make sure that it was obvious he was using different weapons or at least ammo. It’s a safe enough suggestion that, for whatever reason, he chose Berryessa as the crime he would leave evidence at to prove that he was there. Possibly because it was daytime and where it was – he felt safe enough that he could probably tell from a good distance if anyone was coming.

Presidio heights was different as he removed evidence to achieve proof that it was him but as we now see, even that is proving somewhat less solid in some people’s minds.

It is tempting to ‘fill in the gaps’ with this type of theory as I said on Victor’s thread, it’s just that. My feeling is that this type of theory exists to serve a purpose of answering the perceived discrepancies in the Zodiac case, those being largely based on eye-witness descriptions which are fallible at the best of times but my belief is that Zodiac was up to something in regards his appearance which doesn’t help. There’s also the confusion caused over the different composites, some of which were artistic interpretations based on witness descriptions of people that we and LE aren’t even sure were Zodiac.

I have to say that I don’t envy what LE were up against at the time. Having to unravel the BS Zodiac sent their way from all the other BS that was sent their way masquerading as Zodiac and I suspect the BS Zodiac sent their way masquerading as someone masquerading as Zodiac and as someone masquerading as not Zodiac but actually being him (get your head around that one lol). All the time under the very awful pressure of catching this guy because in the really real world, people were being killed.

My point being that what we have today as evidence wasn’t just plucked from the ether with reckless abandon, it was checked and poured over to, as best they could, ensure it was evidence. From the letters to the door to the shirt, they have been authenticated as evidence of the work of the Zodiac killer. The letters are of course a bit of minefield and were to LE, even amongst their own experts to the point were they had to ask the FBI for assistance but the door and the shirt haven’t thrown up any such problems that we’ve seen. They were authenticated for what they were.

I guess I’m trying to put forward my reasons why I’m wary of this kind of theory. It tends to dismiss the work that was done at the time in this case, work that had to be taken very seriously because of what was at stake. So to suggest that these were random crimes tied together by hoax letters only doesn’t cut it for me I’m afraid as I would think that that was something LE would have wanted to clear up very quickly ie are these crimes actually linked. They believed that the evidence showed they were and as morf says ‘common sense’ should suggest the same to us.

I know ‘wearside’ Jack has been cited as an example of how this kind of theory has happened but it isn’t really is it? Wearside jack was just an example of how damaging a hoaxer can be to the investigation and hunt for a ‘real’ and ‘actual’ killer when the BS slips through the net at a crucial stage. In that respect I think the LE agencies involved in the Zodiac case under the DOJ joint task-force did a very good job. This theory implies no killer at all but rather a construct invented from murders unrelated to each other so I don’t think the two are comparable.


I don’t know Chief, he’s very smart or very dumb.

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 9:13 pm
Victor
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IMO, Mr. Horan’s "Hoax" theory is very plausible and correct to the extent that the actual Z. attacks and letters were a group effort which Mr. Harry Martin, I believe, and I share the same theory. The group effort disguised as a "lone nut" putting out seemingly unsolvable ciphers with clues, to keep investigators pouring over false leads while the trials grow cold, leaving different fingerprints and footprints with varying physical descriptions, to help investigators rule out the very same suspects involved[1], is ingenious. My "fringe" theory is similar but I do not point a finger to those responsible because I don’t know.

I think the "lone nut" theory, with rand’s "the ghost of T.H.", who’s supposedly a spook, being an exception, is chock full of contradictions and obviously contrived. Sorry if I repeat myself and yourselves, but why would a supposed escaped convict who has killed a guard with considerable heat on him feel the need to don a disguise (he intended to leave another witness) leave evidence of two similar killings a lot closer to Vallejo (the shell game) for more heat, then this same wanted killer hails a cab in the middle of town only to kill the cabbie, risking capture again then somehow gains access (risking capture yet again) from evidence locker to mail to the Chronicle (more shell game). And supposedly Z. is simply in it for the thrill of being caught and taunting us for the next (2) years but suddenly stops and disappears. Regardless of our varying possible explanations for why and what happened, I think we can all agree this left (4) attacks with varying evidence, descriptions of suspects, thousands of possible suspects, uncrackable cipher(s), and tons of busywork for investigators, did it not? Well, that was the point of this "lone nut" theory.

1. Hypothetical: The Z. is comprised of Suspect A, B, C, on rotation with D. First attack: A is the lookout, C is the shooter, D is writing letters and ciphers.
Second attack: C is the lookout, B is the shooter, and D is writing letters and ciphers. And so on with evidence, suspects and witness statements not matching except for it being the work of Z.

ref: The "fringe element" viewtopic.php?f=96&t=645

"Jerry, just remember, it’s not a lie if you believe it." George Costanza from Seinfeld

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 9:16 pm
smithy
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Mike – yes, those are all the issues. If you believe that the ENTIRE thing was a hoax, the problems seem insurmountable. That’s about where I (still) am too,
But we need to be careful how high we stack it.

"Lake Berryessa murder scene, writing found on car door. This writing matches confirmed Zodiac letter writing. The attacker wore a hood with zodiac crosshair symbol."
Yes. Doesn’t that suck. It seems to indicate at least that the letter writer had something to do with the appearance of a killer. Not that he himself was a killer, necessarily. It also seems to show that he wrote on that door. Well, if the writer’s Hal Snook, then sure he could have, no problem.

"* Paul Stine murder- letter is sent in containing bloody short piece, and writing is confirmed to be Zodiac’s, which matches the Lake Berryessa car door."

So? Yes, there’s a crime scene the writer needed to be present at. One. There’s the San Francisco Coroner’s office that he needed to be able to gain access to.
If he’d Hal Snook and runs the Napa crime lab, why would professional courtesy not allow him access? That’s not an insurmountable leap either.

"We have multiple crime scenes, in multiple jurisdictions, with physical evidence & writing linking these cases to each other."
What physical evidence? A shirt and some writing on a door? And on the other side of the argument we have multiple weapons and MO’s, and physical appearances (hair colour height and weight) – and yet we dismiss a hoax theory on the basis of common sense? More thinking’s required about it, for sure, but dismissal’s very short-sighted. Somethings very smelly about the whole thing.

"… get his hands on Stine’s shirt to mail it as fast as he did." How fast? I don’t know. How fast to drive from Napa? How fast if you’re already in the area? How fast if you’re having a few beers with the SF Coroner’s office already? Speed isn’t the issue – access is. And it’s not a matter of racing to a particular crime scene – it’s a matter of choosing the right crime scene to steal physical evidence from. No rush.

"If a Berryessa investigator was the hoaxer, he would be awfully lucky to have the attacker in the case at Berryessa wearing a crosshair logo on his hood, unless he is accusing an investigator of being the attacker,and that’s simply terrible and low if thats the case."
I don’t think anyone’s accused Hal Snook of wielding a knife at Berryessa. But how low is that? Do we want to know the truth? I know I do. Something happened at Berryessa which had nothing to do with luck or coincidence. Probably. But since the case has lasted this darn long, I reckon some luck or coincidence might be part of it, perhaps.

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 9:42 pm
Tahoe27
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The Hoax theory isn’t something new. We can go back to very old message boards and read about drug conspiracies, the Vallejo PD/Fire Depts. striking, newspapers seeking attention…it’s all been laid out there for years.

I’m guilty myself of venturing down these avenues.

While the letters could be a hoax (we surely know some were copy-cats), people were killed. THAT person(s) is who we seek. Sure woud be nice too if any letter fakers were punished in some way for messing with an investigation.

As most of you know, the handwriting doesn’t cut it for me. Still to this day we question certain documents as Zodiac when they have been confirmed as Zodiac’s only to be unconfirmed as Zodiac’s. Even the professionals do not agree; meaning Morril and others. Proof, imo, needs to be more than handwriting.


…they may be dealing with one or more ersatz Zodiacs–other psychotics eager to get into the act, or perhaps even other murderers eager to lay their crimes at the real Zodiac’s doorstep. L.A. Times, 1969

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 9:46 pm
smithy
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Trav, I think, since the prevailing approach for the last four or more decase has been to find all the reasons why just one guy did it, it makes a refreshing change to look at it another way!

[I guess I’m trying to put forward my reasons why I’m wary of this kind of theory. It tends to dismiss the work that was done at the time in this case, work that had to be taken very seriously because of what was at stake. So to suggest that these were random crimes tied together by hoax letters only doesn’t cut it for me I’m afraid as I would think that that was something LE would have wanted to clear up very quickly ie are these crimes actually linked. They believed that the evidence showed they were and as morf says ‘common sense’ should suggest the same to us.

Well, the same problems faced the investigators of the time which face us, and the results the same. Let’s not put our arms right round the police work of the time and embrace it as examplary though, since it wasn’t and couldn’t have been. The tools weren’t there, for a start – but you also know as well as I do that suspects for some of the crimes were rejected on the basis of their handwriting(!), and guys who might have been interesting in respect to LHR were interviewed by other witnesses(!). Huh????

I know ‘wearside’ Jack has been cited as an example of how this kind of theory has happened but it isn’t really is it? Wearside jack was just an example of how damaging a hoaxer can be to the investigation and hunt for a ‘real’ and ‘actual’ killer when the BS slips through the net at a crucial stage. In that respect I think the LE agencies involved in the Zodiac case under the DOJ joint task-force did a very good job. This theory implies no killer at all but rather a construct invented from murders unrelated to each other so I don’t think the two are comparable.

Exactly the same kind of damage – send the investigation off to another part of the darn country – was done in the Yorkshire Ripper case as seems to have happened with Zodiac. And the DOJ reports are a farcical mis-representation of facts which embrace stuff from the letters as often as they do facts from the murder sites. No cigar.
This theory doesn’t imply "no killer at all", but reflects the notion that the crimes were not committed by one single individual – they were just made to look that way by some rather clever letters, written by some guy who had access to enough facts to perpetrate them – at least for the first two or three. (After that they’re all rubbish anyway.)

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 9:52 pm
smithy
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I’m guilty myself of venturing down these avenues.

Let’s get the cuffs.

While the letters could be a hoax (we surely know some were copy-cats), people were killed. THAT person(s) is who we seek. Sure woud be nice too if any letter fakers were punished in some way for messing with an investigation.
As most of you know, the handwriting doesn’t cut it for me. Still to this day we question certain documents as Zodiac when they have been confirmed as Zodiac’s only to be unconfirmed as Zodiac’s. Even the professionals do not agree; meaning Morril and others. Proof, imo, needs to be more than handwriting.

Amen!

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 9:54 pm
Victor
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The Hoax theory isn’t something new. We can go back to very old message boards and read about drug conspiracies, the Vallejo PD/Fire Depts. striking, newspapers seeking attention…it’s all been laid out there for years.

I’m guilty myself of venturing down these avenues.

While the letters could be a hoax (we surely know some were copy-cats), people were killed. THAT person(s) is who we seek. Sure woud be nice too if any letter fakers were punished in some way for messing with an investigation.

As most of you know, the handwriting doesn’t cut it for me. Still to this day we question certain documents as Zodiac when they have been confirmed as Zodiac’s only to be unconfirmed as Zodiac’s. Even the professionals do not agree; meaning Morril and others. Proof, imo, needs to be more than handwriting.

______________________________________________________________

Does the group think the unsolved ciphers are really going to tell us the identity(ies) of the kiler(s)?

"Jerry, just remember, it’s not a lie if you believe it." George Costanza from Seinfeld

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 10:11 pm
traveller1st
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Does the group think the unsolved ciphers are really going to tell us the identity(ies) of the kiler(s)?

I don’t. I think it’ll be more nonsense. I think there’s a suspicion that the 340 might contain something interesting with the "bad news" comment possibly being linked to it but I don’t think anyone’s holding their breath that it/they will give us anything useful if they are even real and or contain anything interesting.


I don’t know Chief, he’s very smart or very dumb.

 
Posted : June 26, 2013 10:23 pm
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