Robert Prouty joined the San Diego Police Department after his service in the U.S. Air Force, before relocating to Sacramento in 1973 and working for the Department of Justice as a Questioned Documents Examiner. In the San Francisco Examiner on October 30th 1987, he stated in reference to two potential Zodiac letters “My very firm opinion is that they were not written by the authentic Zodiac. They appear to be composed of previous letters which have since been made public. All of us were hoping we’d heard the last of him”, said Prouty, who analyzes about fifteen bogus Zodiac letters a year.

Imagine how many potential Zodiac letters were being received in 1971, 1972, 1973 etc. Robert Prouty may have declared these letters bogus, but what criteria did he use to declare unequivocally they were bogus. The best he could possibly say, is he doesn’t believe they are genuine – which is not the same as bogus. The Zodiac Killer may have reduced his communications as the years rolled on, but it is also possible that the Zodiac didn’t reduce his mailings, just that the newspapers decided not to publish his letters and cards anymore. There could be in excess of 200 mailings not published – and many could be the Zodiac Killer, with plenty of useful information within them. Robert Prouty declared that the 1987 letter was bogus (in absence of the only other envelope mailed to the Vallejo Times-Herald. In other words, he made this declaration in absence of all the available information in the Zodiac case. The latest revelations in the “Zodiac” case, should make us all think again about the validity of handwriting analysis in certifying genuine Zodiac letters or otherwise. The bold claims of people declaring potential Zodiac communications as obviously bogus, because they just don’t look like Zodiac, is not a convincing argument. 

If Zodiac communications did reduce post 1971, he could simply have got tired of the game. Everything has a shelf life. Maybe he got married, had children, or simply found a new venture. It’s extremely difficult to say.

What’s interesting to me is that at Lake Barryessa, Zodiac over-communicated. He divulged information to Hartnell about a prison break (mentioning a very specific location) anticipating that he would then kill both Bryan and Cecelia. The question is, was this an unforced error? Does it explain the lack of a letter accompanying the attack? 

Was the Stine attack then to draw attention away from this slip-up? What they call in PR a dead cat strategy. 

“The dead cat strategy, or deadcatting, is the introduction of a dramatic, shocking, or sensationalist topic to divert discourse away from a more damaging topic”

Posted by: @andr3w_0

What’s interesting to me is that at Lake Barryessa, Zodiac over-communicated. He divulged information to Hartnell about a prison break (mentioning a very specific location) anticipating that he would then kill both Bryan and Cecelia. The question is, was this an unforced error? Does it explain the lack of a letter accompanying the attack? 

Was the Stine attack then to draw attention away from this slip-up? What they call in PR a dead cat strategy. 

“The dead cat strategy, or deadcatting, is the introduction of a dramatic, shocking, or sensationalist topic to divert discourse away from a more damaging topic”

 

Yes. I think even LB was supposed to be a distraction away from BRS which was a distraction away from LHR. I think he does them when he feels LE is getting too close to something. I did this thread on how the Zodiac persona could have been created for an alibi. It is not necessary to include an alibi for the misdirection strategy though in the model you presented.

John Douglas is convinced the Zodiac messed up at LB.

The UNSUB had also given another clue to his identity by his reference to Deer Lodge, Montana. There is—and was—a prison there, and while the story of his breakout and murder of a guard proved false, connections to that place should not have been ruled out. For one thing, you don’t just pull a location like Deer Lodge, Montana, out of a hat. I spent some time as a student at Montana State in Bozeman, and I didn’t recognize the name, so I can assure you that most people outside of Big Sky country wouldn’t have heard of the place. This guy fully expected both Cecelia and Bryan would end up dead. In fact, when he misspoke in his call to police to report the crime as a murder, he corrected himself to clarify it was actually a double murder. If both victims were to die, there’d be no risk in mentioning a place that held some significance to him. I think this information can be used to law enforcement’s advantage. Here’s a scenario: Cooperate with an investigative reporter writing about the cases locally in Deer Lodge. With the facts of the murders, release general profile information on the suspect, indicating that police in California have reason to believe the killer has links to the area without leaking why they believe this. Along with the elements garnered from witnesses—white male, midtwenties to early thirties, etc.—the profile would include the following behavioral traits: suspect is a loner, paranoid, nocturnal, and intelligent. He has an extreme interest in weapons and may have left the area for military reasons, if, for example, he was to be stationed in California, and he may have had a medical discharge from the military since then. He may also have communicated with someone in Deer Lodge in a position of authority in a scornful way (as a precursor to his taunting letters to police and the press in California). A little later, we’ll get into a more detailed discussion of proactive techniques I’d try in this case, but I have to stress now that this is the type of investigation where that approach is most helpful. The offender is communicating with the police and the newspapers, so you know he’s following his press. This makes him vulnerable because he can’t help but react to what is said (and printed) about him. Look how quickly he responded to Chief Stiltz, for example. On the other side of the coin, he’s a white-male, paranoid loner who likes guns and isn’t real successful with women. A lot of social misfits out there meet that general description. In this case, then, profiling is only going to be so helpful in narrowing the field of suspects. You have to flush this guy out, do something to make him come forward. I think in large part this is why the Zodiac was never apprehended. In the late sixties and early seventies, he was a modern serial killer being pursued by old-fashioned, tried-and-true investigative techniques. He slaughtered people who were either unknown to him or could not be traced back to him. His motives were nontraditional and undecipherable. He evolved, using different MOs and different weapons at each crime scene. He moved from one jurisdiction to another, manipulating public and press everywhere he went.

– Olshaker, Mark; Douglas, John E.. The Cases That Haunt Us: From Jack the Ripper to Jon Benet Ramsey, The FBI’s Legendary Mindhunter Sheds New Light on the Mysteries That Won’t Go Away (pp. 282-283). 

Posted by: @richard-grinell

Robert Prouty joined the San Diego Police Department after his service in the U.S. Air Force, before relocating to Sacramento in 1973 and working for the Department of Justice as a Questioned Documents Examiner. In the San Francisco Examiner on October 30th 1987, he stated in reference to two potential Zodiac letters “My very firm opinion is that they were not written by the authentic Zodiac. They appear to be composed of previous letters which have since been made public. All of us were hoping we’d heard the last of him”, said Prouty, who analyzes about fifteen bogus Zodiac letters a year.

Imagine how many potential Zodiac letters were being received in 1971, 1972, 1973 etc. Robert Prouty may have declared these letters bogus, but what criteria did he use to declare unequivocally they were bogus. The best he could possibly say, is he doesn’t believe they are genuine – which is not the same as bogus. The Zodiac Killer may have reduced his communications as the years rolled on, but it is also possible that the Zodiac didn’t reduce his mailings, just that the newspapers decided not to publish his letters and cards anymore. There could be in excess of 200 mailings not published – and many could be the Zodiac Killer, with plenty of useful information within them. Robert Prouty declared that the 1987 letter was bogus (in absence of the only other envelope mailed to the Vallejo Times-Herald. In other words, he made this declaration in absence of all the available information in the Zodiac case. The latest revelations in the “Zodiac” case, should make us all think again about the validity of handwriting analysis in certifying genuine Zodiac letters or otherwise. The bold claims of people declaring potential Zodiac communications as obviously bogus, because they just don’t look like Zodiac, is not a convincing argument. 

If Zodiac communications did reduce post 1971, he could simply have got tired of the game. Everything has a shelf life. Maybe he got married, had children, or simply found a new venture. It’s extremely difficult to say.

   

That’s interesting. I am wondering though why the Zodiac wouldn’t just go for a different news group if one stopped publishing them. The media still talk about the Zodiac on a yearly bases almost right through to today.

BTW, I am really enjoying your find that some cops used the slang “slaves in the afterlife/paradise” for when they kill someone in the line of duty.

Posted by: @andr3w_0

What’s interesting to me is that at Lake Barryessa, Zodiac over-communicated. He divulged information to Hartnell about a prison break (mentioning a very specific location) anticipating that he would then kill both Bryan and Cecelia. The question is, was this an unforced error? Does it explain the lack of a letter accompanying the attack?  

Like others, I assumed he saw no need to write specifically about Lake Berryessa, as he had already done this via the car door, and the phone call. The challenge to prove he was the killer had already been made by Police Chief Stiltz, and the writing on the door was a pretty emphatic way of pre-empting another challenge. 

Posted by: @bdholland

 

The UNSUB had also given another clue to his identity by his reference to Deer Lodge, Montana. There is—and was—a prison there, and while the story of his breakout and murder of a guard proved false, connections to that place should not have been ruled out. For one thing, you don’t just pull a location like Deer Lodge, Montana, out of a hat. 

This guy fully expected both Cecelia and Bryan would end up dead. In fact, when he misspoke in his call to police to report the crime as a murder, he corrected himself to clarify it was actually a double murder. If both victims were to die, there’d be no risk in mentioning a place that held some significance to him. I think this information can be used to law enforcement’s advantage.”

 

Interesting read. Whether the mention of Deer Lodge was deliberate and designed to mislead, or, as Andrew O said, an unforced error, either way he was aware of the prison break and as Douglas says, that is arguably a massive clue. (Of course, the jury seems to still be out as to whether the Zodiac specifically stated “Deer Lodge”.)  As a side note, and in light of Douglas’ comments above, I find it extraordinary that it was 2021 and Tom V who, with his recent post at his site, discovered there was an actual prison break at the time (unless I’m missing something?)

I think there is a possibility that the Zodiac and the case is more radically different from other serial killers than we think. Most serial killers are able to completely hide undetected in society. One question we have about the Zodiac is how on Earth did he manage to do that with all the evidence out there?

I think he didn’t manage to do that.

The more I think about his need to communicate, the more I think there is a very good possibility he needs to confess and has done so when someone close recognized the possibility. The handwriting. The composite. The traveling. The whole thing had to click with them and they probably asked him and he answered, yes.

The Belli letter shows a will to do so.

The Bates letter is called what?

I think he talked. I think he confided.

I think people know who the Zodiac is. I think they have known for a long time.

So I think there is good chance they tried to help him but I also think there is a possibility that he re-lapsed a few times and sent mail.

I’d go with the idea that they blamed it on alcohol abuse and so he attended AA meetings and various groups that dealt with addictions. As long as they knew he was attending these things they believed he could stop. Back then serial killers were relatively unheard of. They would put it down to an arbitration of his personality and he would just promise to get himself sorted out.

When things appeared to stop with the Zodiac and the media they took that as evidence he had stopped. They learned to live with him and it. Put it behind them. I think they probably had him out of the way of things that could potentially trigger him but also kept a close eye on him, asking him what he was doing to keep himself occupied, things like that. I think it was a group effort and probably a very sad story.

I think it could be that radical. I think its near impossible for those close to him not to have realized it. If they were someone close to you wouldn’t you recognize the handwriting, the phrases, the composite. You would be making connections to things right there and then that have taken researchers decades to even begin to contemplate.

Posted by: @mrsean

Posted by: @bdholland

 

The UNSUB had also given another clue to his identity by his reference to Deer Lodge, Montana. There is—and was—a prison there, and while the story of his breakout and murder of a guard proved false, connections to that place should not have been ruled out. For one thing, you don’t just pull a location like Deer Lodge, Montana, out of a hat. 

This guy fully expected both Cecelia and Bryan would end up dead. In fact, when he misspoke in his call to police to report the crime as a murder, he corrected himself to clarify it was actually a double murder. If both victims were to die, there’d be no risk in mentioning a place that held some significance to him. I think this information can be used to law enforcement’s advantage.”

 

Interesting read. Whether the mention of Deer Lodge was deliberate and designed to mislead, or, as Andrew O said, an unforced error, either way he was aware of the prison break and as Douglas says, that is arguably a massive clue. (Of course, the jury seems to still be out as to whether the Zodiac specifically stated “Deer Lodge”.)  As a side note, and in light of Douglas’ comments above, I find it extraordinary that it was 2021 and Tom V who, with his recent post at his site, discovered there was an actual prison break at the time (unless I’m missing something?)

Yes, according to the new information unearthed by Tom V, it would appear there was a two man prison break from Montana State Prison on Sunday September 21st 1969, almost a week before the Lake Berryessa attack. The story appears to have only been carried locally (as far as anyone has been able to ascertain so far), meaning that news of the escape would not have easily been known to anyone in CA unless they had a connection to MT.  

So far it’s looking like an error, imo. 

If that was the case, Z likely wrote on the car and completed the attack thinking it was his greatest success to date, only to find out he’d blundered. 

The paranoia would then likely force Z to up his tempo and MO considerably. Maybe that makes the PH attack one of convenience, therefore, explaining why Stine wasn’t his typical victim type. He needed the distracting headlines and an even bigger caper, to eclipse his mistake. 

Posted by: @andr3w_0

The story appears to have only been carried locally (as far as anyone has been able to ascertain so far), meaning that news of the escape would not have easily been known to anyone in CA unless they had a connection to MT.  

Or worked in the industry.

Posted by: @andr3w_0

Posted by: @mrsean

Posted by: @bdholland

 

The UNSUB had also given another clue to his identity by his reference to Deer Lodge, Montana. There is—and was—a prison there, and while the story of his breakout and murder of a guard proved false, connections to that place should not have been ruled out. For one thing, you don’t just pull a location like Deer Lodge, Montana, out of a hat. 

This guy fully expected both Cecelia and Bryan would end up dead. In fact, when he misspoke in his call to police to report the crime as a murder, he corrected himself to clarify it was actually a double murder. If both victims were to die, there’d be no risk in mentioning a place that held some significance to him. I think this information can be used to law enforcement’s advantage.”

 

Interesting read. Whether the mention of Deer Lodge was deliberate and designed to mislead, or, as Andrew O said, an unforced error, either way he was aware of the prison break and as Douglas says, that is arguably a massive clue. (Of course, the jury seems to still be out as to whether the Zodiac specifically stated “Deer Lodge”.)  As a side note, and in light of Douglas’ comments above, I find it extraordinary that it was 2021 and Tom V who, with his recent post at his site, discovered there was an actual prison break at the time (unless I’m missing something?)

Yes, according to the new information unearthed by Tom V, it would appear there was a two man prison break from Montana State Prison on Sunday September 21st 1969, almost a week before the Lake Berryessa attack. The story appears to have only been carried locally (as far as anyone has been able to ascertain so far), meaning that news of the escape would not have easily been known to anyone in CA unless they had a connection to MT.  

So far it’s looking like an error, imo. 

If that was the case, Z likely wrote on the car and completed the attack thinking it was his greatest success to date, only to find out he’d blundered. 

The paranoia would then likely force Z to up his tempo and MO considerably. Maybe that makes the PH attack one of convenience, therefore, explaining why Stine wasn’t his typical victim type. He needed the distracting headlines and an even bigger caper, to eclipse his mistake. 

It’s certainly an interesting scenario. It’s easy to buy into the theory that the motivation for the Stine killing was ego driven – i.e. the Zodiac was reacting to the stories and comments about him in the press. Like with the EAR, the Zodiac was undeniably following his own publicity. So, did the Zodiac brazenly kill a lone male because he’d failed to kill Mageau and Hartnell? Was it to up-the-ante in his terror campaign by striking in the heart of San Francisco itself? These are definitely valid ideas.

But the idea he did it to distract from his Lake B slip-up? Also plausible, but not something that’s been discussed much for obvious reasons. Definitely worth exploring in light of a certain recent POI.

My question again – if the Montana reference by the Zodiac is as significant as it would appear, surely LE would have investigated this as a hot lead? And surely the “news” that there was in fact an escape at the time (and the subsequent LE enquiry) would have made it into the Zodiac case files well before Tom revealed it in 2021?