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Zodiac Forensic Stylistics – By the Numbers

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Barry S.
(@barry-s)
Posts: 177
Estimable Member
Topic starter
 

Picking up on this topic: viewtopic.php?f=97&t=2296&start=10

I thought I’d take a stab at compiling statistics on some of the documents in this case. I’ve started with the confirmed Zodiac mailings and will continue with the unconfirmed mailings, CJB letters, Manalli letters, etc. if the users of this board find it interesting. While we have no biological DNA on hand to rule out POIs, we do have copious amounts of "literary" DNA available to us. Maybe there’s something in the data that will light some bulbs.

The analysis presented is mostly objective. I say mostly, because the formatting of a few of the letters is odd enough that I had to make judgment calls about what constitutes a paragraph, a sentence, etc.

The first document contains readability statistics:

The spreadsheet can be downloaded here: https://app.box.com/s/gd934uh6msm1z2ojw6yst1h9x8y7ytti

Most of Z’s writing could be understood by a typical U.S. 6th or 7th grader; however, the last couple of letters attributed to him were written at a High School senior or college level.

You can read about the various readability indexes at these links:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flesch%E2 … lity_tests
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunning_fog_index
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMOG
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coleman%E … Liau_index
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated … lity_index
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linsear_Write
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fry_readability_formula
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raygor_re … y_estimate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dale%E2%8 … ty_formula

 
Posted : September 6, 2015 8:42 am
Barry S.
(@barry-s)
Posts: 177
Estimable Member
Topic starter
 

The second analyis contains data derived from the Regressive Imagery Dictionary. The data here may help organize thoughts about the psychology of Z. A quick look reveals an obsession with concrete details, a lack of emotionally-charged language and a definite disinterest in sex–in the letters, at least.

Here’s the data:

And a link to the spreadsheet: https://app.box.com/s/gd934uh6msm1z2ojw6yst1h9x8y7ytti

Download the entire dictionary here: https://app.box.com/s/ocmvkm7qekh1eiv2e0p6vmy56mwk1obq

The Regressive Imagery Dictionary (Martindale, 1975,1990) is a content analysis coding scheme designed to measure primordial vs. conceptual thinking. Conceptual thought is abstract, logical, reality oriented, and aimed at problem solving. Primordial thought is associative, concrete, and takes little account of reality. It is the type of thinking found in fantasy, reverie, and dreams. A running tally of category occurrences is kept, and final output consists of the categories and the percentage of words in a document that were assigned to each category. This output can then be subjected to statistical analyses. The Regressive Imagery Dictionary contains about 3000 words divided into twenty-nine categories designed to measure primordial content and another set of seven categories designed to measure conceptual thought, the inverse of primordial cognition. These categories were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature on regressive thought (Martindale, 1975, 1990). The rationale behind the dictionary is that psychological processes will be reflected in the content of a text. Thus, for example, the more primordial the thought involved in producing a text, the less abstract and the more drive- and sensation-oriented words it should contain. It should be noted that the view of regressive cognition upon which construction of the dictionary was based is not a narrowly psychoanalytic one but is closer to Werner’s (1948) or Goldstein’s views (1939). Thus, the construct that the dictionary ultimately measures might as well be called dedifferentiated thinking as regressive or primary process thinking. For these reasons, we use the terms conceptual vs. primordial thought.

The dictionary yields a measure, primordial content, derived by summing the percentage of words in a text that belong to any of the component primordial content categories. Primordial content is the sum of the categories listed under the summary categories Drive, Regressive Cognition, Perceptual Disinhibition, Sensation, and Icarian Imagery in Table 1. Generally, a better measure is obtained by subtracting percentage of words in Conceptual Content from the percentage of words in Primordial Content.

Detailed evidence concerning the reliability and validity of the Regressive Imagery Dictionary is reported elsewhere (Martindale, 1975, 1990). Evidence for the construct validity of primordial vs. conceptual content comes from studies where the measure has behaved as theoretically predicted: Significantly more primordial content has been found in the poetry of poets who exhibit signs of psychopathology than in that of poets who exhibit no such signs (Martindale, 1975). There is also more primordial content in the fantasy stories of creative as opposed to uncreative subjects (Martindale & Dailey, 1996), in psychoanalytic sessions marked by therapeutic "work" as opposed to those marked by resistance and defensiveness (Reynes, Martindale & Dahl, 1984), and in sentences containing verbal tics as opposed to asymptomatic sentences (Martindale, 1977). A cross-cultural study of folktales from forty-five preliterate societies revealed, as predicted from the "primitive mentality" hypothesis of Lévy-Bruhl (1910) and Werner (1948), that amount of primary process content in folktales is negatively related to the degree of sociocultural complexity of the societies that produced them (Martindale, 1976). Martindale and Fischer (1977) found that psilocybin (a drug that has about the same effect as LSD) increases the amount of primordial content in written stories. Marijuana has a similar effect (West et al., 1983). Research has also revealed more primordial content in verbal productions of younger children as compared with older children (West, Martindale, & Sutton-Smith, 1985) and of schizophrenic subjects as compared with control subjects (West & Martindale, 1988). It shows the pattern expected for historical trends in primordial content in Martindale’s (1990) theory of literarary evolution. Thus, the Regressive Imagery Dictionary does seem to yield a valid index of primordial or dedifferentiated thought in a variety of contexts in which the measure varies as is theoretically expected.

Factor analyses of the categories based on the above mentioned texts have also yielded evidence for the construct validity of the dictionary. The factor analyses have consistently yielded a first factor accounting for about 30 percent of the variance which loads highly on the primordial categories and in a high negative direction on the conceptual categories.

As an example of how this works, here’s an analysis of the San Francisco Chronicle article at this link: http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/A … 303028.php

You’ll see there are some humorous mistakes (e.g. ICARIAN IMAGERY: WATER washington) but for the most part, the text is categorized correctly.

    SECONDARY:SOCIAL BEHAVIOR 61
    speaking interviewed told said said please said said said calls confirmed speaking said said said said said talk conversation told said said said call confirmed teacher talked said says allow tell said said said talk responded meets said meeting conduct said said said said said calls says responsibility message says respond escort offers help service asks helps replies help describes says
    SECONDARY:ABSTRACTION 52
    know effectively evidence evidence believes theory think prove theories tend something almost evidence them effect figuring probably real known think sure theory estimated considered evidence comparing evidence evidence why evidence evidence theory thinks truly believe believe think examiner them them may plans them them them them them them plans them them them
    EMOTIONS:AGGRESSION 46
    killer killer killings homicide killing shot killed homicide slaying murders killer killer killings killer killer hit killer killings attack bladed knife accused killings knife blade blamed homicide killer shot killed murder shot killed shootings killed stabs knife killer shot killer threat shoot killing killer torture complains
    SECONDARY:TEMPORAL REFERENCES 42
    years ever time when date years then old dates dates years ago when year old every week when year old years time old occasionally old months ago year old then date instantly hour year times when when when then hours time everyone
    SECONDARY:INSTRUMENTAL BEHAVIOR 40
    finding copywriter work results work pick used used using marketing found found working find businessman making recovered recovered studied results recovered task tests work working working pick capable pay find copy students costume uses trademarked machine won makes claim count
    PRIMARY:REGRESSIVE COGNITION:CONCRETENESS 34
    apart out out out opening within circle back background points at out long west west at surface close west open outside at opens east circle at long circle at nearby west at point out
    SECONDARY:RESTRAINT 26
    police police police police police police police police arrest police police police determine caught locker police captured stopping police police stop police assigning police catch stopping
    PRIMARY:SENSATION:VISION 10
    seen regard looking looked looked flashlight blue brown lookout appears
    PRIMARY:DEFENSIVE SYMBOLIZATION:PASSIVITY 10
    laying dead retired retirement died death death die dies death
    PRIMARY:REGRESSIVE COGNITION:BRINK-PASSAGE 9
    door trailer trail road ferrin door streets street door
    PRIMARY:REGRESSIVE COGNITION:NARCISSISM 8
    heads handed head eyes blood foot bloody skin
    EMOTIONS:AFFECTION 6
    loved likely devoting like darlene goodbye
    EMOTIONS:GLORY 6
    great genius genius wonders great superior
    PRIMARY:REGRESSIVE COGNITION:UNKNOWN 6
    enigmatic mystery secrets mystery magic strangers
    PRIMARY:ICARIAN IMAGERY:HEIGHT 5
    heights high tall heights highway
    PRIMARY:SENSATION:GENERAL-SENSATION 5
    impressed physical pretty impressed attention
    PRIMARY:DEFENSIVE SYMBOLIZATION:VOYAGE 5
    driver traveling ride driving drives
    PRIMARY:SENSATION:SOUND 5
    heard tone ringer loudly heart
    PRIMARY:NEED:ORALITY 4
    saliva berryessa cherry nuts
    EMOTIONS:EXPRESSIVE BEHAVIOR 3
    screaming players play
    PRIMARY:ICARIAN IMAGERY:FIRE 3
    warm searched fire
    PRIMARY:ICARIAN IMAGERY:WATER 3
    lake lake washington
    PRIMARY:DEFENSIVE SYMBOLIZATION:RANDOM MOVEMENT 3
    shook activity twisted
    SECONDARY:ORDER 3
    serial former simple
    PRIMARY:ICARIAN IMAGERY:DEPTH 3
    under under under
    PRIMARY:SENSATION:TOUCH 2
    brush stroke
    PRIMARY:NEED:ANALITY 2
    stale dungen
    PRIMARY:DEFENSIVE SYMBOLIZATION:DIFFUSION 2
    mistakenly darkened
    PRIMARY:SENSATION:COLD 2
    cold children
    PRIMARY:ICARIAN IMAGERY:ASCENT 2
    springs jumping
    SECONDARY:MORAL IMPERATIVE 2
    law customer
    EMOTIONS:SADNESS 1
    sorry
    EMOTIONS:ANXIETY 1
    shy
    PRIMARY:REGRESSIVE COGNITION:CONSCIOUSNESS ALTERATION 1
    madness
    EMOTIONS:POSITIVE AFFECT 1
    laughed
    PRIMARY:NEED:SEX 1
    bitch
    PRIMARY:REGRESSIVE COGNITION:TIMELESSNESS 1
    enduring

    PRIMARY : 30.288462 %
    EMOTIONS : 15.384615 %
    SECONDARY : 54.326923 %

    1973 words total[/list:u:32z1tdfd]

     
Posted : September 6, 2015 9:04 am
joku
 joku
(@joku)
Posts: 205
Estimable Member
 

Yet another intriguing dataset from you Barry! Thanks. I’ll have to look through your post history to see if you’ve released more these type of files along with the Vallejo population directory. I agree that this type of statistical stuff is quite useful when it comes to trying to gauge the inner workings of the Zodiac.

 
Posted : January 25, 2018 6:55 pm
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